Crude Observations

I believe it is well established at this moment in time that I, like many energy sector participants, am not terribly patient when it comes to infrastructure. I want my pipelines and I want them yesterday. It goes without saying that a strong regulatory approval process is required, environmental protections must be in place and proper consultations held. But it’s the waiting that kills you. And it’s not even. Why do some projects take so long and others seem to get approved in the blink of an eye?   It’s not a level playing field […]

Ever notice how sometimes there are cultural phenomena or global events that arise and transfix people for weeks at a time such that they become very much a part of the public dialogue and which allow complete strangers to find common cause or shared experience that they otherwise wouldn’t? These things can take any shape or form and run the gamut from “knowing where you were when Kennedy was shot” or 9/11 memories or, conversely, rather than some world changing event, it was a cultural phenomenon that swept the world. Like the Macarena. Or Baby […]

Welcome everyone to the end of April. The time of year when Calgary gets its annual dose of freak snowstorms and patio weather, often in the same day. That’s right, the time of year when you thought it was safe to go back outside for a run or spark a doob on a patio downtown (what? That’s not allowed? That’s stupid) some crazy weather comes along to remind you that it is still in fact winter here notwithstanding the calendar. We are officially in the end of winter doldrums.   Other signs that we are […]

Well there you have it. The election is finally over. What was 28 days of full-on flinging of mud, rage and other nasty stuff has, in typical Canadian fashion, rolled over into the smooth and peaceful transfer of power from the Rachel Notley NDP to our new set of overlords, the United Conservative Party lead by Jason Kenney.   With the election over I can finally catch up on my sleep and with the all-consuming rage messaging toned down I no longer find myself curled up in the corner hiding from the world at large. […]

This is it. The last blog before the big day. I know I have been threatening it for some time, but this is the day I have to actually make my prediction in this godforsaken Alberta election. I can’t avoid it anymore So I’m going to do that. Soon. But first, I feel I must veer off topic and tell a wee story.   This blog started about four years ago. Under oddly similar circumstances. You see, at that time, in 2015, Alberta was going through an election, the economy was under duress, the Conservatives […]

Okay, I lied. Can you forgive me? It was too easy. It was spring break, I was relaxing with my family and it was Friday. And I really didn’t want to go inside and write my blog and I refused to leave poolside because I had a freshly cracked Dos Equis XX by my side. So, I thought to myself, “Self, it’s Friday – you got nothing to write and Monday is April Fool’s and to leave that alone is a disservice to pranksters everywhere. So I did what I did. But really, theer is […]

Sorry everyone for the tardy delivery of the blog. But I have some bad (good?) news for you.   As many of you know, I have been wrestling with this for a while, but I have decided, after much contemplation and consultation with loved ones and colleagues to call an end to the blog after this week. After all, I am running out of things to talk about, what with the ills of the energy sector being solved by our Liberal Party of Canada overlords and the wise men of OPEC (+). I mean, think […]

Wow, has it been a year already? I guess it has, and here I sit in my office transfixed by the opening rounds of my favourite sports tournament of the year and contemplating the meaning of college sports. And as always, as my basketball bracket implodes and I see all my bets wither and die, I am reminded that the big dance is also happening in the energy world and, as tradition dictates, I need to do my picks.   Last year was a pretty intense energy tournament and my final match up was a […]

Good afternoon everyone, an abbreviated blog this week. Why? Because this week I am coming to you remotely. Ironically from Montreal, a city that I slagged so magnificently last week.  Where in Montreal? Well I am paying a return visit to my roots, pretty much THE root, the Montreal General Hospital where yours truly was born – many, many, many years ago. And wouldn’t you know it, just up the street from here is the Trudeau family compound, and down the street is the head office of SNC Lavalin and right in between, where I’m […]

Another week gone by and another hot mess of scandals, crises, economic malaise and assorted bad news. Unless you are Bryce Harper signing with Philadelphia for $330 million over 13 years, you likely have had a pretty challenging week. But even that isn’t good enough for the sports punditry. He should have taken a shorter deal for more money per year! Why Philadelphia! What a moron! I’m not really sure what measure of moronity the guy calling in to a sports loudmouth show at 11:35 pm on a random Tuesday is using, but he might […]

I know all of you think I am some loser who sits around all day reading technical articles about oil & gas, energy policy and energy services, while also spending way too much time on twitter debating politics from all sides of the aisle. And that armed with all that, I sally forth and spend the balance of my time holding industry and the political establishment to task – critiquing their policies and market interpretations, busting myths, spreading truths. The usual blog hero stuff.   And you what? You would all be absolutely right. In […]

Finally. At long last. Phew. A week where I can sit back, take a deep breath and then unload on a variety of different topics. It’s taken a while and as always, a number of them have been festering beneath the surface, like acid reflux, or natural gas under pressure, just needing one little ghost in the machine to let everything blow out in a torrent of rage, or words as the case may be.   Okay so maybe that’s a little melodramatic and probably raises expectations too high on the actual rantiness of what […]

Ah Valentine’s Day, I hope everyone had a good one and was able to celebrate with loved ones and scored copious amounts of chocolate, flowers, edible underwear – whatever floats your boat really.   I of course scored my favourite gift, a platter of the finest cheese, a Keto friendly baguette that I was able to enjoy with a flagon of the finest wine and the company of my own Valentine.   But enough about me. Today for some reason I feel the need to talk about the environment. Specifically the environment as it relates […]

Given my well-documented struggles with writer’s block these last few weeks, it is surprising that I haven’t taken the time to pen a missive about the unfolding events in Venezuela. Well that ends now, especially since the chattering class seem to have finally noticed what is going on in Venezuela and seem to have a passing interest in what has led to the current situation – which is about as mild a word as one can use for what is in reality a calamity.   Regular readers of this blog will know that I consider […]

Okay folks, this is it. I am officially stumped and torn this week. I don’t know what to write on. You see there are two themes rattling around in my head. First, it’s Super Bowl Weekend. My favourite chicken wing mainlining time of the year. And this year yet again we have a super-intriguing matchup. Sean McVay the boy genius coach facing off against the Sith Lord of the NFL, Bill Belichek. We have the young gunslinger in Jared Goff against the old man who just won’t quit and who is universally loathed pretty much […]

Well it looks like it’s time for an encore folks. After last week’s ranty blog, I am betting that everyone is up for something more. What is he going to do next? Who’s the target? Horgan, right? It’s gotta be Horgan! (For the benefit of non-Canadian readers or those who (smartly) avoid politics, Horgan is the current premier of BC). No, it’s not Horgan, even though he is a tempting target. And it’s not anyone in the US because as I described last week I am not able to make any comments on American politics […]

I was drawing a little bit of a blank this week as last week’s torrent of wisdom relating to my Fearless ForecastTM  was, shall we say, somewhat draining and we appear to be in the middle of some January blahs right now what with the snow and the government shutdown. It’s so blah not even the upcoming Super Blood Wolf Moon (a real thing) or Donald Trump serving hamberders (another real thing) can seem to shake me out of it.   So accordingly I am going to do something that I should have done a […]

Are you ready for it? Because I sure am! Brace yourselves dear readers – it is that time of year where I lay myself bare to all of your collective scorn and ridicule and put out the one and only Fearless Forecast that you absolutely must read, right now, before the market opportunity escapes you! Read it!   That’s right, step right up now and let me tell you about the prognostications that will amplify and electrify your portfolios. The stock picks and the macro directions that will set you on the path to eternal […]

Note from me – WordPress changed the way it does its posts so I haven’t been able to figure paragraph spacing yet. Many apologies. Just think, 2018 only ended a mere 4 days ago and it is so forgettable that I have forgotten all about it. Except when I am reminded of it. Like now. When I am forced to look back at what happened last year and compare that to what I expected to happen. Put another way, ever wonder what happens when a prognosticator celebrates their own brilliance a mere ¾ of the […]

Well here it is, Christmas Eve, the shopping is finally stopping and the family is sitting around being uber-lazy and getting ready for the big day. Normally I don’t do a midweek blog but this year I feel the need for one last communication as we wonder what 2019 has in store for us. I know one thing for sure, I am extremely hopeful we aren’t in for a repeat of, say, the last 4 months, because that’s been pretty ugly no matter where you sit.   That said, I am feeling a bit more […]

Well, that was fun while it lasted, wasn’t it? No sooner had the OPEC+/Russia and others deal been extended, signed and delivered as promised than that old sneaky spoiler of the party – unimpeded, explosive shale oil growth and negative market sentiment – raised its ugly head again and promptly knocked the feet out from under the market faster than you can say yippee ki-yay!   You will notice I left out the end of that sentence, but most people in North America know there is an M and an F involved. And of course […]

As the holiday season ramps up and we get closer and closer to Christmas, some of you may have noticed a disturbing trend in this blog. Namely, that we have a whole bunch of things we need to cover off before we leave and that the blog seems somehow rushed, like I am in a big hurry to get out of the office and do some Christmas shopping even though, like most of the guys I know, I have a tendency to do all of this on the last day of shopping in the busiest […]

So that’s it then. All the storm and fury, the price gyrations, the leaks, the tweets, the media frenzy. It has all culminated in this – a very predictable cut in oil production from the OPEC/NOPEC/OPEC+/RUKSA whatchamacallit.   Phew right? I told all of you last week that something momentous and earth-moving was in the offing and I wasn’t wrong. Big things!   It was admittedly pretty exciting to watch from the safety of my chair here in Calgary, but I bet it was far more exciting to be standing around outside the OPEC building […]

This week is what I will call the calm before the storm since as we all know next weekend is the granddaddy of them of them all, the Kentucky Derby of the oil year. That time when all things momentous are decided and the fate of the free world is determined by a gathering of thugs, despots and wannabe dictators. I am referring of course to the upcoming OPEC meeting where they will debate (for show) the cuts in production they have already agreed to.   But really, enough about that. Right now we are […]

An abbreviated blog this week as we at Stormont celebrate American Thanksgiving by sending an endless amount of emails to all our American contacts asking them inane question because we know they are on holiday and it bugs us. Particularly since Canadian Thanksgiving was 6 weeks ago.   Speaking of Thanksgiving, I would like to give thanks for the eminent wisdom of government, in particular the provincial government as they struggle with the issue of landlocked Alberta resources and try to find solutions for how to get Alberta oil out to the masses of buyers […]

Well it sure has been a tough couple of months for those of us in the oil business as prices have taken it on the chin and it seems even kindly old grammas that you help across the street are swatting at us with their umbrellas.   I know I talked about this last week, but the turnaround has been so rapid, that it is really hard to talk about much else. That said, I am glad to see that markets have stabilized, for now, and OPEC and Russia seem to be ready to cut […]

As some of you are reading this the price of oil has dropped below $26 a barrel which as we all know is the low it reached in February 2016.  This is a remarkable fall from grace for a commodity that just a few short weeks ago was being pegged for a healthy run at $100 a barrel.   What? I’m wrong? It’s not below $26? What gives? Well it must be below $40. What with all the panic selling happening. Honestly, I’m still shocked but $40 has to be the floor right?   Still […]

Well you heard it here first, the Canadian oilpatch is done. That’s what I hear in the media anyway. Shut off the lights and go home folks, nothing to see here. Please move along. Investing in Canada, if it was ever a good thing is now a guaranteed dud. Bre-X after the helicopter thing. An income trust on November 2, 2006. A tech stock after posting record earnings that beat estimates, but not by enough.   Yup, it is indeed hard times here in the oilpatch. Just ask Suncor, Cenovus, Encana, Crescent Point. Literally bleeding […]

So folks, here we are. A mere five sleeps away from my second favourite holiday of the year – Halloween. What? It’s not a holiday? That can’t be right. We have a bank holiday, a family day, a May long weekend holiday – why can’t we have a Halloween holiday? I mean it’s not like anything gets done on Halloween. It’s that weird day of the year where you sit at your desk eating black & orange foil wrapped chocolates, avoiding the black licorice and then, when you go for your lunchtime walk, you don’t […]

Well it’s been quite the week hasn’t it? Exhausting is one word that comes to mind. Overwhelming is another. Actually scratch that. It’s been literally months of this energy and pipeline roller-coaster, such that I feel sometimes I am close to losing my mind.   Speaking of which, I was recently doing a little investigative work for a client who was very curious about the “personalities behind the stories” as he believes that if you truly understand what motivates someone you can make investment profits by exploiting that. My own personal opinion, careful what you […]

One of the nice things about Thanksgiving, which I failed to mention last week is the copious amount of turkey and potatoes and gravy and stuffing you get to eat, which of course is one of the bad things about it too. Combine this overindulgence of tryptophan with, say, a bit too much bourbon and wine and then stir in the beginnings of a “man-cold” and you have a recipe for the crazy weird dreams I have been having.   And after having lived through the last few months of project approvals and delays, record […]

For those of you who pay attention to these things, this coming weekend is Canadian Thanksgiving. If you’re busy, and I’m betting quite a few of you are, you’re welcome for the reminder. If you’re Canadian, yes Monday is a stat.   My American friends will note of course that Canadian Thanksgiving is earlier than American Thanksgiving. The simple reason for this is that we like to have it before the first snow of the season wrecks all of the beautiful fall foliage and the temperature is still warm. I remember growing up in Quebec […]

Well, another three months have gone by and it seems that all of the progress we made in the second quarter has been mercilessly unwound by forces both within and outside of our control.   And the result is that my fearless forecast of 2018 appears to have completely upended and sent on its merry way as pipelines got under way and then were stopped, stopped pipelines were suddenly back underway and once left for dead pipelines (no, not Energy East) appear to have been resurrected and suddenly have a schedule.   Production growth continues […]

I don’t know about you guys, but I find the energy sector to be a really complicated industry. It’s multi-faceted and there are so many aspects to it. There is an up/mid/downstream, there’s exploration, production, transportation and retail. There are multiple products, raw and refined, petrochemicals, onshore, offshore, conventional and unconventional, shale, sands, rules, regulations, environmental considerations, consultations, land claims, farm-ins, joint ventures, cartels, multinationals, IOC, seven sisters, seven dwarves… It’s never-ending and enough to make your head spin.   And then there’s the terminology – rathole, annulus, toolpush, birdbath, mud, dog collar, cat walk, […]

I don’t know about you, but every once in a while I wake up in a cold sweat with a sense of impending doom. I’m sure this is a fairly common occurrence and the product of an over-active mind and not some manifestation of my advancing years or chicken wing habit.   But what caused this panic? Was it the planned reckless use of the Notwithstanding Clause by Doug Ford in his no-holds barred efforts to show Toronto City Council that he’s the new sheriff in town? Was it the ongoing NAFTA renegotiation or the […]

That’s right, the NFL is back and for the next 5 months I get to stay up late and watch PVR’d football games while the rest of my family snores away, oblivious to my ridiculous addiction which is so bad that last year I watched a Cleveland game. Why am I bringing up football in an energy focused blog? Well first of all, because I’m super-excited for football, always have been and always will be. Secondly (and thematically) because like all true fans, I have been consuming a never ending barrage of top 10 lists […]

Usually the Friday before Labour Day is a quiet time. A time for reflection before it gets super busy in the fall. An opportunity to calmly lay out a reasoned list of things to watch for over the next few months – issues that need a critical eye, undercurrents that may not be entirely evident but could impact the energy space, emergent trends requiring analysis or upcoming events that will be of major significance.   This time frame works because it is after all the last long weekend of summer, before school gets under way […]

So I was away this past week – squeezed in one last summer trip, to my hometown of Montreal. A short trip, enough time to turn off the brain, gobble some smoked meat, visit friends and family and get caught in what appears to be the largest series of construction projects in Canadian history (yes, I know, equalization).   But I’m home now and before cleaning my skeleton of a blog, I decided to check the news feed to see if anything interesting happened while I was away since I had elected not to look […]

Remember last week when I said my blog was going to be unpopular? Well I was right. I did indeed receive some feedback of the opposite of positive variety. Oh well, it happens, right? I mean not everyone agrees about everything.   For those of you who don’t recall or didn’t read it because you thought it was going to be one of my damn poems again, the gist of it was as follows:   No, the Saudi dispute is not evidence that the Energy East pipeline project needs to be revised. No, it is […]

So here I sit reading all the blather about Canada’s escalating dispute with Saudi Arabia, which actually is more like Saudi Arabia’s dispute with itself or Saudi Arabia acting like a spoiled and petulant child because someone called them on being stuck in the middle-ages, mean-spirited and disrespectful of human rights.

So here we are. Week 3 of me trying to be brief and let’s be truthful with each other. It’s not actually going that well. It’s hard. I know it, you know it, my family knows it. I can’t help it. I’m naturally long-winded. After all, why do something in 2 words when you can more easily do it in 167?

Since I’m continuing on my vacation and shorter blog theme from last week, I am going to keep this week light and frivolous. Fortunately I am able to spend a few days at home before heading out on a family road trip which means what? Well if you are in my house it means a little tidy up activity (remember this is a blog – not all things presented occur as described – artistic license).   At any rate, I decided a fun thing to do would be to clean up a bookshelf or two. […]

Seeing as it’s July and summer and everyone I know is on or has been on vacation, I have made a summer resolution. And that resolution is, for the time being at least, to cut down on the excess verbiage in these weekly missives.  That’s right, I am going to try and make them shorter. I will park the flowery prose I typically use and instead get right down to business.   That is indeed my covenant with my readers. Brevity. Succinctness. Economy in description. To the point punchiness. Pithy yet brief. You get the […]

So enough with all the patriotism and all that jazz. We’ve spent the past several weeks with lists and itemized reasons why Canada is such an awesome place even though no one wants to invest here. We’ve enumerated the many reasons why Donald Trump is risking global prosperity in his ridiculous attempts to restore balance to only one side of the trade equation. We’ve lamented trade wars, we’ve bragged about Canada’s personality, we’ve raged at the injustice of a lack of pipelines.   We’ve done all that, but do you know the one thing we […]

Can you believe another quarter has come and gone? I mean seriously that was fast. It felt much more like a short 90 days. And it feels like the world has changed in those 12 weeks since I last looked at my forecast. So much happens in three months that it’s hard to stay on top of things. I mean yeah, I’m pretty sure I’ve been glued to Twitter for at least the last 2,160 hours which of course has helped me keep up with the news.

Alright, this week represents yet another opportunity to celebrate a birthday, although this time it is Canada’s birthday (really darling, you don’t look a day over 151). Accordingly, in true patriotic fashion and fully of the mind to exploit the tariff driven nationalist fervour (take that American yogurt!) that we seem to be experiencing, I am going to lazily reduce, reuse and recycle a number of columns written on previous Canada Days into one truly magnificent ode to our wonderful and quirky country.

One of the many benefits of doing a blog for so long is that you develop annual traditions such as my Sweet 16 challenge, the annual fearless forecast and quarterly review as well as this week’s ode to laziness, the ubiquitous birthday list! That’s right, each year I throw together a lazy list of energy reflections. This year there are 53 of them because I am turning 53. Holy free-holy Batman! That’s a lot of years. Last year I celebrated that I had been able to get my weight down to less than 4 times […]

It’s been an interesting and momentous week hasn’t it? Where to start? G7 debacle? North Korea? OPEC? I mean there is so much going on, only some of which seem to affect us as Canadians, but of course that is hopelessly naïve since it all impacts us in some way, especially as to how we interact with the United States. Which of course means that this is totally about that surreal G7 meeting, the fallout and trade. OPEC can wait until next week.

OK folks, I think it’s about time we had an honest discussion about widening price differentials against WTI, lack of rail capacity for shipping and the spectre of trucking oil to refineries because of massive pipeline constraints. We also need to have a very serious conversation about the over-production of gas in a trapped market which is causing prices per Mcf to crater and prompting widespread shut-ins of producing wells.

But … I told you so. Seriously, like at least 4 times in the past four weeks. I even wagered money on it. And I never gamble. Anyway, in the true spirit of all “I told you so’ers” I fully intend to gloat and bask in my glory. Ahh, that feels great. What did I tell you? That the Federal government would buy Kinder Morgan Canada’s TransMountain Pipeline and related assets in order to get the project moving forward.   Admittedly, I didn’t get all the details bang on. I neglected to account for the […]

So here we are. Less than a week to go. The final word. The last hurrah. The big close. Bottom of the ninth, two out, nobody on. Fourth and 18 from the 37, one second on the clock. Hail Mary time. The final countdown. Game 7 – overtime. The whole enchilada. Time to get ‘er done. All or nothing. Go for broke. Last shot. The clock is about to strike midnight. The beams are about to cross. Henderson! The ball is tipped – it’s one shining moment! The last kick at the cat. Death or […]

That’s right folks, there is a Royal Wedding this weekend and it is time for celebration. Thus, as dutiful servants of the Crown, most of us Canucks will be donning our fascinators and heading to the nearest Hose & Hound or Parrot & Duke or Rat & Spleen British-themed neighbourhood pub to watch the nuptials of young bonny Prince Harry and the American pretender Meghan Markle. On top of that, it’s also Victoria Day weekend, the celebration of the birth of Queen Victoria. Or as we call it here – May Long.

It’s been a big week in the energy sector, hasn’t it? What with Donald Trump bailing out of the UN/Iran nuclear agreement, supply squeezes and other volatility, it would appear that my tongue-in-cheek forecast of $300 oil is well on its way, right? And, with all the exciting developments on the Canadian pipeline front this past week, well it seems like…. Oh wait, there were no developments on the Canadian pipeline front. Sorry. And $300 oil? Not a real thing. But, hey, it’s important to make it all about us, right?

The force is strong in this week’s blog. So, Someone is forecasting $300 oil. Aside from how ridiculous and reckless that is, let me first say, it comes from a pretty successful hedge fund investor and is backed by some thoughtful analysis. And, aside from being barking mad, the point of the call is that without significant investment in new fields and projects, there is a very real possibility that rising demand and  decline rates crush OPEC spare capacity and the fantasy of tight oil as a swing producer and we find ourselves in the […]

As a big National Football League fan, I have to say that this time of year is very exciting to me with the schedule coming out last week and this week getting all wrapped up in the draft, contemplating how badly some of the teams with the top draft picks will screw up this year, which promising young quarterback will be ruined by the New York Jets, the usual.   One of the most fun things to do is to read and obsess about the 367 mock drafts that get prepared because there is nothing […]

So here’s a thing that has been in the back of my mind since I started my blog. Maybe all of you out in cyber-land can give me some cogent advice and let me know whether it’s a good idea or whether you think I have been spending too much time reading my own press clippings. What I’ve been thinking is that it’s about time for me to branch out into writing in a more formal way.

Well that was an interesting week wasn’t it? I feel sometimes that I write these blogs on a Friday and by the time I come back into work on Monday, the whole world has changed or the premise of what I was saying has been turned upside down or something happens that seems to indicate that I am some kind of Energy Prophet, able to peer into the arcane depths of this most confusing sector and emerge Gandalf like with the one true path.

OK, I admit it. Time to come clean. I lied. I never intended to stop doing the blog. It’s too addictive. I can’t quit the energy sector and the bully pulpit this blog gives me that easily. So I lied to you. It was a cheap April Fool’s stunt, mainly concocted to distract from my egregious forecasts. But many of you saw right through it, so kudos to you. On the other hand, I did manage to fool quite a few people, so yay for me! I guess.

Well, here it is. Time for a long thought out and serious decision. I have elected, after much determination, consternation and consultation with friends, family, colleagues, the leaders of the seven major world religions and numerous governmental bodies to make this edition of the blog, being Easter Sunday, April 1 2018 on or before 11:59 AM Mountain Standard Time the last. It’s been a good run, but with the energy sector in such good hands, I think the timing and reason for the end is obvious. I have nothing left to add to the discussion.

I believe that I owe my loyal readership a massive apology. It all starts with last week’s Sweet 16 energy bracket and the fact that I was in such a tizzy about the opening round basketball games that I didn’t give anywhere near enough thought on what I was writing and picking and I sure paid the price. Well at least my NCAA bracket did. I hope no one took any of my picks all that seriously.