Crude Observations

Was it just this week that we had a federal election? Or was it this week that we had an all-out revolt in the Alberta-leading (un)United Conservative Party? Or was it both. It’s been a thing hasn’t it? Our fearless leader Justin Trudeau tripped over the finish line first in the least interesting election in Canadian history, the implications of which I will discuss below.   Mere days later, Jason Kenney, Premier of Alberta, found himself the subject of a potential non confidence vote that he deftly avoided by running over his underling, former Health […]

Alright fans, hangers on and wannabes. This is the week you have all been waiting for. The missive with the prediction. The rant on current issues and a review of our political future. A wash and rinse of the tea leaves, revealing the inner secrets of the Canadian body politic. A bona fide prognostication of epic proportions on this, the MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION EVER! Well at least the most important election of the modern era. Hmm, well maybe not. How about the most important election of the 21st century? No? ice Stephen Harper stumbled into […]

Well there I was, all ready to do my annual Election Review and Forecast (it is annual right? It certainly feels like it is) when I realized it might actually be premature and that there were other events and developments occurring around me that might be both more relevant and interesting to all of you. I mean, I know that the vagaries of our insular, parochial approach to politics and the world resonates so very strongly outside of our borders, but come on people, we just had our final debate last night and I haven’t […]

Ah Labour Day. That annual celebration of the righteousness of the downtrodden worker, the brave collectives and essential workers, putting it all on the line day after day in order to enrich the greedy capitalist fat cats who live for exploiting the masses.   Like me. I am happy to call myself a fat cat capitalist. Well at least I was until I bought into the hype and decided to buy into the latest mania – crypto currency promoted on Twitter. Oops! There goes retirement I guess. Now I’m more of a capitalist mangy feral […]

I was though, on vacation, before, but it was a pretty short one. Like the rest of the summer it’s just been a few days here and there. Why does that matter? It doesn’t really. I’m just wondering how I managed to not string together more weeks over the summer of home bound relaxation or summer in the over-priced country rental market, or days at a luxury resort somewhere.   Oh wait, I know. We are slammed. Super busy. We actually have more deals in the market at this moment in time than we have […]

Well folks, here I sit on Friday the 13th of August, a beautiful sunny day and I am busy typing away on this here summertime bi-weekly blog and searching for something that is both pithy enough to entertain you, my loyal readerships, yet brief enough that I can go outside and enjoy what could very well be the last nice weekend of the summer. Because you never know.   And that is something to be fearful of. And there is a lot of fear going around these days. Fear of the pandemic, fear of missing […]

Well here we are in Alberta, in the middle of the August Long Weekend, a traditional time of deep reflection and soul-searching, where the good people of the province take stock, peer through the haze of forest fire smoke and decide what they are going to do in the fall when they have to go to work.   True to form, our provincial government, in its infinite wisdom, has seen fit to smooth the way back to work by declaring that, as of August 15, the COVID pandemic is officially over and that all extra […]

I’m back! Did anyone miss me? That’s what I thought. Well I missed all of you. It has been a whole two weeks since I have written a blog and let me tell you, it was weird experience. I know I told you a month or so back that when summer arrived I was planning on switching to a every two weeks to recharge the proverbial creative batteries as they say and maybe, just maybe, do some client work. Or take time off. Or both really.   And it worked, to a certain extent. I […]

Has it been 6 months already? How time flies when your forecast is getting munched up and spat out like so much doggie kibble. I feel, rightly or wrongly, that this year has been particularly unpredictable, even if we do have the world’s most predictable politician sitting in the White House instead of that other dude.   Maybe it has something to do with Coronavirus recovery, maybe it has to do with the energy transition, I’m not 100% certain but the general sense I have is one of flux and volatility.   Or maybe I’m […]

Stuck in a hard place this week. I have two traditional blathering blogs that I do at this time of year. The first is a review of my Fearless ForecastTM, wherein I assess the damage I have done to my credibility at the halfway point of the year. The second is an annual Canada Day blog where I recycle some thoughts on this weird country we live in. My issue of course is that Canada Day is July 1, a Thursday and the end of Q2 is June 30, a Wednesday and today, of course, […]

Well folks, since last week was a review of referendum questions including that whopper that happened in 1980 in Quebec that I had to live through as a spry 15 year old budding political activist (not even remotely true BTW) and the Habs are in the Stanley Cup semi-finals, it is only appropriate that I continue this trip down memory lane.   Of course I do this every year at this time, mostly because I’m lazy and I tend to do affair amount of blog repetition, but also because summer is coming and it is, […]

Well there you go. The Alberta government has finally come up with its referendum question on equalization and has announced it to much fanfare and derision. Fanfare of course is mostly of the self-congratulatory and siloed variety as the UCP is firmly in support of the positions it supports and derives its support from the supporters who support the things they support. Derision is the highly populated domain of everyone who thinks this is just another dumb idea.   Representative democracy is a pretty cool thing when it works. Direct voting on matters of great […]

Alright, first off, let’s just get this out of the way. Toronto lost. Montreal won. Nanny nanny boo boo. In the great Canadian hockey wars this is both an expected and unexpected outcome and a restoration of order to the universe. The last Canadian hockey team to win the Stanley Cup was the Canadiens in 1993 and since then it’s been an exercize in futility for a series of wannabes. This means that in order for a Canadian team to win the Cup, it will likely have to be the Canadiens. Of course they have […]

This is one of those weirdo weeks in the energy world that bear some scrutiny and analysis, if only to offset the gleeful dunking that the environmental/energy transition movement is currently engaging in, because I feel that the celebration is premature. Kind of like the CBC and the Toronto-centric media anointing the Maple Leafs as presumptive Stanley Cup favourites while they still haven’t yet ousted the pesky but woefully over-matched Habs from the first round of the NHL playoffs (note to Canada, it is 100% fitting that the first playoff game with actual people in […]

Ah, May 21. A day leading into the best weekend of the year for us Canadians. Any number of reasons. Primarily it is the first long weekend of the year where we aren’t typically house bound. Secondly, because of history.   What history you ask? Well let me edumacate you.   We used to call it Victoria Day in honour of the birthday of Queen Victoria who ruled the Commonwealth for what, 250 years prior to Queen Elizabeth the Second and just after the 1500 year reign of Queen Elizabeth the First. I’m sure there […]

So it has been an interesting week, has it not? I think so. But then I am a bit of a an information junkie and I like the chaos that seems to surround the energy industry so I can be forgiven for getting a little too excited at times by what is most certainly excruciating iterations of drying paint to others.   One of the most fun things in the news this week for us energy losers is pipelines. All sorts of them. Pipelines that work, pipelines that aren’t built, pipelines that are partly built, […]

The other day I was looking back at some of my old blogs looking for a little inspiration and I was struck by how in the before times I spent a lot of blog space looking at numbers (not only for ordering lists) and industry statistics and making pithy or wise commentary out of those numbers. These numbers included production numbers, prices and other meaningful stats that would tickle my fancy during the week and that I felt were somehow worthy of further reflection.   Yet somewhere along the way, I got away from that […]

Howdy all, I know many of us, especially here in Canada, have a rough go of it in April, but as the Timberlake dude says, don’t worry because tomorrow “It’s Gonna be May” and not a day too soon if I may say so myself. Which I will. April generally blows for many reasons, to layer in resurgent pandemic waves (I’m looking at you India, Ontario and Alberta), Tesla earnings and a pause in the energy rally just isn’t fair. Then the Kenney government decided to charge a user fee for fun. Come on guys! […]

Well, this week is going to mark a first of sorts for this blog – I’m going to put a new tome in this writer’s oeuvre and finally acknowledge an event that is universally loved by seemingly everyone I have ever known and, let’s be honest here, everybody else. I’m talking about the Academy Awards of course, the Oscars. The big night where the beautiful and smart people in Hollywood get together and celebrate themselves by talking about themselves and giving prizes to each other, all in the hopes that they will get noticed, either […]

You ever have one of those weeks that make you want to throw up your hands and walk away from everything? Check out and never check back in? Let someone else do your thing while you relax in the proverbial sun and enjoy bevvies in the (appropriately socially distanced of course and no more than 10 people) back yard? That would be this week. Started good, got weird, got really, really annoying. But now I am venting which is kind of a natural state for me so I suppose that’s a small win.   It’s […]

This is another of those seminal weeks in the world of sports, as it is in the world of Canadian oil and gas. Let’s get the boring part out of the way first. As most Canadians know. Well Albertans know. OK, energy sector participants then. Ahem, as most of us industry people know, the end of March and first weeks of April are what’s known as Spring Breakup. No, it’s not the time of year when investors break up with the energy sector (although it often seems that way).   No, spring break up is […]

Well folks, it’s that time of year again. Time for me to gobble some humble pie and absorb the shame that is my birthright, at least once a quarter. Yes, it is time to review where I am at in my Fearless Forecast, for better of for worse (typically for worse to be honest). Or as I call it, the Foolscast for anyone foolish enough to follow my picks.   It’s a once quarterly exercise that I both dread and relish. Dread because of the inevitable whiffs. Relish because it saves me from wracking my […]

Has there ever been a better metaphor for the energy sector writ large and Alberta’s place in it than the sight of a giant transport vessel wedged across the Suez Canal, effectively bringing to a grinding halt a significant portion of international trade and shipping, including somewhere around 2% of the daily volume of liquid fossil fuels transport (oil and LNG)? Didn’t think so.   It works on so many levels.   Are we the lineup of ships stuck behind the canal plug desperately trying to get our product to market?   Are we the […]

Ah, NCAA March Madness. How I have missed you. It is hard to believe it has been two years since I have been able to sit down and listen to the sweet and somewhat jarring sound of squeaky shoes on a gym floor as my favourite sporting event unfolds in front of me on office TVs, secretive channel switching at home and late-night PVR’d buzzer beaters. Last year’s tourney of course was laid low by the pandemic so this year of course is probably the most highly anticipated since the early 1990’s UNLV/Duke rematch.   […]

Over the past few months regular readers may have noticed that I have used this platform to allude to what may or may not be an emerging commodity super-cycle. Driven by gradual (or in the case of Texas, sudden) re-openings of the global economy as the vaccine rolls out and people get more comfortable being part of regular society once again, the theory is that demand for the building blocks of society will accelerate as restrictions come off.   I know many pundits and experts have modelled this as either a gradual recovery with modest […]

It’s been a weird week. I have found myself wanting to write about the current surge in oil prices which, it has been noted, are up $100 from their trailing 12 month low of -$37 a barrel. This in and of itself is a truly astounding development that flies in the face of everything we have been told about the pandemic and the drastic drop in demand (unless of course you read this blog).   But I feel I need to park that for a while and continue my journey from last week wherein I […]

This week I set out to try something a little different and wanted to bring some levity to the blog as I have the distinct impression that recent columns have been quite serious and not so much fun. This is to be expected of course given the ongoing drudgery of the pandemic, last year’s lousy energy market and, let’s get real, lots of bad news pretty much all around.   As promised, there will be some fun stuff, but it’s going to have to wait a few paragraphs because the real world has a nasty […]

Don’t you? Because well, here we are. A mere 7 weeks into 2021 and already the whole thing is going to heck in a handbasket. No, I’m not talking about the debacle that is the NHL season south of the border where games are being cancelled willy-nilly due to COVID exposure. Nor am I talking about the latest vaccine fiasco (no, there isn’t another one, it’s a figure of speech) with the Federal government dropping the ball on procurement for enough weeks to get hammered by the opposition and the provinces who will soon be […]

Well wasn’t that exciting? Another Super Bowl, another Super Bowl victory for Tom Brady. All I can say is it’s a good thing for him that the game was held when it was since, as the numbers show, he only wins championships when the price of WTI is below $60 a barrel. I say it’s a good thing because if the price signals are to believed we should break that $60 mark within weeks (if not days) as ongoing vaccination rollouts, inventory drawdowns and economic optimism all point to higher commodity prices.   In the […]

I’ve decided to take a break this week from my usual vitriol and sarcasm (well maybe I’ll save some until the end, just because). Instead, this week I want to talk about numbers. Different numbers. Lots of numbers. The best numbers. I also want to talk a bit about goats. And age. And baby goats.   Let me start with the first and most important number of the week.   55. Or Fifty-Five. LV. As in Super Bowl LV. This Sunday. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chefs (Chiefs oops… Great googly moogly). The grand […]