Crude Observations

I kinda wish it was. Don’t you? What do I wish was over? The year. It’s hard to imagine that just a short six months into the new year, my forecast has been taken out behind the woodshed and struck repeatedly upside the head until it collapsed in a sobbing mess of shattered hopes, broken dreams and deflated hubris.   Sure, directionally I have gotten some things right and I may be close to my year end forecast for average oil prices, but nowhere did I ever think I would get there through penny stock […]

Today is one of those glorious historical anomalies for the Crude Observations blog that some people might call a coincidence but that I consider to be a Gregorian twist of fate. As I described last week, I have many traditions for the blog including the birthday blog, the review of my terrible forecast blog and the Canada Day blog. And in most circumstances, it is rare for the blog to fall on the day for one of these traditions yet this year, it has fallen on the day for two traditions so I am presented […]

Well folks, here it is. That time of year where we all hopefully are starting to wind down. Kids are coming out of school, people are getting excited for their upcoming vacations, assuming that they have an up to date passport and all of Calgary is preparing for Stampede in their own unique way. Whether that is dusting off the cowboy suits for another year of fun or high-tailing it out of town doesn’t really matter – I’m all about tradition.   Another tradition this time of year is the ritual bloodletting for people foolish […]

Open Letter to Joe, Justin and whoever is in charge of the EU   Stop. Just stop.   What part of the Titanic movie was so hard for you to understand? The poor street urchin and grifter seducing the hot bored society girl or the behemoth unsinkable ship sinking to the bottom of the ocean because of monumental stupidity and hubris.   Please tell me it’s the latter, because if it’s the former, then what you are doing is intentional.   Look, I get it. The climate matters. CO2 matters. Reducing CO2 matters. Doing something […]

Where last week I chose an opportune time to toot our own horn about some of the deals we have done recently, this week I’m going to take a slightly different tack and talk about deal flow and M&A in general, the current market and some tried and true bits of advice.   I promise that next week I will get back to discussing the state of the energy industry, making fun of various levels of government and politicians and further postulating on what our soon-to-be post-pandemic, inflationary, rising interest rate new world order world […]

I often get asked about the current state of the M&A market. In Alberta. In energy services. In Canada. In general. These questions come from private equity firms, lawyers, prospective clients, current clients, lenders, family, friends. Still waiting on media questions, but maybe that can wait.   My universal stock answer is that “it depends” and that for every business at any time there is a buyer.   Then I typically get asked about valuations, which is a legitimate question at this point in any cycle – late stage for tech, early stages for energy […]

So we all know that one of the crazier conspiracy theories around is that the World Economic Forum is some form of Trojan Horse organization whose sole purpose is to infiltrate world governments  and influence them into adopting a new world order under which we, the mere proletariat, will be enslaved and forced to bet vaccinated and reduce our carbon footprint until such point in time that we cease to exist.   And they do this of course by hosting a bunch of rich people at a posh mountain retreat in Davos, Switzerland in an […]

Ah, Friday May 20. May Long. The bestest long weekend of the year for us Canadians. For any number of reasons. Primarily it is the first long weekend of the year where we aren’t typically house bound. Secondly, because of history.   What history you ask? Well let me edumacate you.   We used to call it Victoria Day in honour of the birthday of Queen Victoria who ruled the Commonwealth for what, 250 years prior to Queen Elizabeth the Second and just after the 1500 year reign of Queen Elizabeth the First. I’m sure […]

Dear Bitcoin and crypto investors. I’m sorry. Who could have seen this coming just a few months ago? I mean it’s not like interest rate hikes, potential recessions, inflation, war, famine, pestilence and an energy crisis were all happening at the same time right? There was no market “signal” that the risk trade was coming to a sudden and terrifying end.   Well of course all the signs were there, they were as obvious as the fact that a PDF cartoon of a monkey smoking a f-ing joint wasn’t worth millions of dollars. And that […]

What day of May is it, I’m confused. 6th?  8th? Too many numbers.   Or is it Cinco de Mayo? A celebration of Mexico defeating France in some war that no one in Mexico really cares about? But that has been coopted in the United States as a super convenient numerical excuse to drink margaritas and eat mass-produced tacos? Sign me up!     Or May the 4th, the day when we celebrate the force and Yoda and 3, maybe 4 good Star Wars movies out of 10 (Empire Strikes Back is the best BTW, I […]

Because I have a deal closing soon and this whole Muskitter or Twelon deal seems to be all anyone wants to talk about, I thought I would avoid serious stuff and carry on the tradition of the tongue in cheek April blog to the very end of the month.   Because you know what they say:   April is tough and nasty or so they say But I don’t care, ‘cause on the morrow It’s gonna by May!   Anyway.   From Chaucer (he dropped the iambic pentameter hammer on April showers) to folksy sayings […]

Canadian Energy producers are gearing up to announce in the next few weeks an all-time obscene gusher of profits. There is going to be so much money flowing, Tony Montana would be embarrassed at the riches. Donald Trump himself will have never seen anything quite so yuge and John Paul Getty will be rolling over in his grave and pinching John D. Rockefeller in the tuckus.   Notwithstanding this veritable tsunami of cash, Canadian E&P’s continue to struggle for the respect they deserve on the national, global and investment stage. So bereft of ESG bonafides […]

You’d think with a title like that this would be a blog about the Federal government and their approval of the Bay du Nord deepwater oil and gas project and you’d be right. But you would also be wrong. While I am very much wanting to wax eloquently about the most significant upstream oil project approval in Canada in more than a decade, I have realized that I am nowhere near well enough informed about this particular one to share an opinion. So I am doing the unprecedented – I am turning to an actual […]

Alrighty then. Enough procrastination. As many of you are no doubt aware, I have sneakily taken the last few weeks off to lazily do some Spring Break stuff, recycle old blogs (that Rolling Stones playlist is the bomb though) and play a lame April Fool’s Day prank by pretending I was quitting the whole writing gig.   Joke’s on you though because I haven’t quit! Aha! Joke’s on me as well because my Spring Break was anything but relaxing as my family and I embarked on a COVID influenced version of Planes, Trains and Automobiles […]

That’s April Fool’s. Can’t believe you fell for it.   We will return to our regularly scheduled programming next week when I am no longer a road warrior.   Fearless Forecast review. Shudder.

Oy. It’s been a hell of week. But it’s over. And now I need to do a blog. But after this week, my level of motivation is low.   Why? Because after the trials of Hercules (sort of) we finally got to start spring break. If you are in that rarified circle of confidence, you know it’s been a heck of a ride to get here.   So that buys me a modicum of laziness. As a result, I am going to rerun one of my favourite blogs from the last few years.   But […]

Ah, NCAA March Madness. How I have missed you. It is hard to believe it has been a full year since I have been able to sit down and listen to the sweet and somewhat jarring sound of squeaky shoes on a gym floor as my favourite sporting event unfolds in front of me on office TVs, secretive channel switching at home and late-night PVR’d buzzer beaters. Last year’s tourney of course was a muted affair, played in front of sparse crowds and all pandemicky, so this year of course is probably the most highly […]

Well my peeps, here we are at the two year anniversary of lap-top closing day (officially March 13) and the unofficial two week anniversary (if you can call it that) of the criminal invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin and I am wondering if and when we will ever be free of either. Not that I am in any way giving up on a resolution to either, I am nothing if not an optimist, I am just starting to wonder if we are so willing to accept one as being endemic, will our attention span […]

Another week gone by and the outrage continues in Ukraine. The relentless march of the Russian forces continues and the inevitability of it all playing out on television is, quite frankly, soul-crushing. This is not going to be a short war. The conquest of the cities may come faster than people think, but the insurgency is going to last a long time. Putin’s folly will be his downfall although at the current moment, it doesn’t appear that the reality of the situation has set in with the general Russian populace, who remain stuck in a […]

Well, here we go. The first of many blogs that will thankfully not be about trucker convoys and occupations of national capitals. Instead, this blog will be in part about… the prospective occupation of another national capital.   We have all seen the horrific images and accounts of the unprovoked, international order defying and completely perplexing Russian invasion of Ukraine. And we all sit helplessly while on the other side of the world, the comfortable détente that we all thought was permanent is brutally shattered by the actions of one man and one man only […]

They’re talking about us! They’re really talking about us! Yay! Oh wait. That’s not what I wanted…   What exactly is he on about now you might ask? And you would be justified in asking. Allow me to explain. These past few weeks has seen something that, in my many years as a self-aware denizen of this country we call Canada, I have rarely been witness to. And that is the rest of the world actually paying attention to Canada. Unfortunately, in this instance, it isn’t in a good way.   Usually, Canada hits the […]

That’s right, Super Bowl Sunday! The day of days. The culmination of all the hard work I have done since September. Forcing myself seemingly day after day to watch football games, read football news, talk about football, PVR football and bet on football. And let me tell you, I am a master of all of these. Except the betting part. That didn’t go so well until I cleaned a buddy’s clock in the divisional round (sorry for bringing it up).   At any rate, if you know me, you know I am a sports lunatic. […]

Last week I elected to chat a bit about a variety of things happening in the world at large that were affecting energy prices and that we should pay attention to as the year progresses. And less than a week later, we continue to see, during what is, to put it mildly, a rocky start to the year, events very much outside of our control that will continue to affect the oil and gas industry for years to come, including, as always, the actions of malign actors with sinister intent. Not to be outdone by […]

What an eventful week it has been in the markets and the energy world as we all collectively held our breath waiting on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada to do the inevitable and bring interest rate Armageddon to the over-heated asset bubble housing and NFT markets of North America and cause a collective bout of stress-related acid reflux for over-levered consumers across the continent.   After all, inflation is the scourge of modern times and it is long past time to slay this demon once and for all. Except of course they […]

Here we are, three weeks into the New Year and I’m already struggling for original content. It’s a tough go, but I promise all of you I will struggle through. It’s just going to be that kind of year. Fortunately, I made a personal resolution last year that I was going to write shorter, punchier blogs. Well except for last week – that was a forecast and there was a lot of ground to cover. But shorter blogs means more time for me to do the deep dive research required to write the blog and […]

This is it folks.   You may not know it, but this is what you have all been waiting for since I started to mail it in as of early December. You see, I have a plan when I do all those Christmas blogs – movie ratings, naughty and nice lists, poems. All part of my super secret plan to observe the world, come up for air and determine for you, my dear readers, what exactly the heck is going to happen in the upcoming year.     This means that all those investment decisions, […]

Well folks, I’m back. Here it is 2022 finally and ye Olde Crude Observations is set to make its triumphant return. As is customary, I take a few weeks off at the end of the year to recharge batteries (just not in my car), spend time with family and friends over the Christmas and New Year’s break and, if I’m lucky, travel to the United States and pick up vitamin D the old-fashioned way in Phoenix.   Unfortunately, nasty old Seamus Murphy O’Micron had different ideas this year so instead of all the accoutrements of […]

Well here we are, Christmas Eve. The night before the Day. The shopping is finally stopping and the family is sitting around being uber-lazy and getting ready for the turkey and present show.   I know I promised last Friday was the last blog for the year but I can’t help myself. I am a creature of habit and tradition.   And my tradition is a poem on Christmas Eve and gosh darn if I’m not going to honour that and regale you. In this oh so not normal of a year, where all our […]

Another eventful year has come and is almost gone. Across the world, leaders and followers have done their best to keep us entertained if not firmly on our toes. Whether it’s an Almost Best Summer Ever or an insurrection executed by the grossly incompetent or a tanker getting stuick in the Suez Canal as the ultimate metaphor for supply chain disruptions, we have without a doubt seen a decade’s worth of ups and downs in one lonely year.   Market gyrations, pandemics, elections, insurrections, conflict, Bitcoin, Trump, sky-high electricity prices, coal recovery, natural gas rallies, […]

ThSo how is everyone doing?   Oil is back above $70. For now. So all is right with the world. For now.   Gas disappoints. For now.   Inflation bites. For now.   Politics is once again fun and interesting. No, not really.   The Conservative Party of Canada’s finance critic is so for out of his depth on his file that he needs Michelle Rempel-Garner, who apparently has a single mom friend in Kelowna who buys $2500 jerseys for her spouse, to step in and save him from further humiliation at the hands of […]

Warning – unedited stream of consciousness, just like Biden’s energy policies…   It’s been an eventful week hasn’t it, what with the Comicon variant rolling in and upsetting the entire global economy and throwing the energy sector into a major tizzy as well as the Biden administration trying their best to fumble their way through a politically expedient oil sector demonization play. Never mind the intellectual genius of the conservative party of Canada trying to blame inflation on pretty much every factor except for the ones that actually, you know, cause inflation.   It’s hard […]

This is starting to sound like the proverbial broken record, but yet again this is going to be another short blog since I am once again on the road – had to make a quick family visit to Toronto. And by quick, I mean quick. I am back home tomorrow. Ironically not for Thanksgiving, because we did that in October and I’m Canadian after all. No, this was purely a visit for the sake of visiting. Although given that the Alberta vaccine QR code generator apparently is on the fritz, who knows, right?   At […]

This blog may turn out to be rather short, as I have a closing today and, to be completely honest, have not had much of a chance to think about, organize or otherwise compose a blog, never mind have any specific thoughts about a blog.   Given that the week that started out with me being almost stranded on a stretch of mountain highway out of cell range and in a snowstorm, taking 9 hours to go 125 kilometres out and back in a typical Alberta November garbage weather (sorry, I was in BC for […]

Well good day folks! Apologies for being a day late. I hope everyone had a good week. I certainly did, helped along by last week’s cathartic rant about the absurd hypocrisy and hypocritical absurdity that is the COP26 gathering and the sanctimonious green puritans who attended it. Thankfully, it ended early so everyone got to go home and get back to the important work of, you know, actually reducing emissions.   What’s that you say? It went on for another week?   You. Have. Got. To. Be. Kidding. Me.   How does that happen? What […]

As some of you regular readers know, I have a thing against conferences, especially pretentious and hypocritical ones attended by the world’s wealthy and elite. I did my COP26 blog early because I knew if I did it during the actual event it would just make me mad. And you know what? It made me mad despite that.   S0 I’m going to take a moment, and a deep breath, and through stream of consciousness and likely distorted memory dump a bunch of sound bites of the contradictory and contra-indicating nonsense going on in and […]

It’s Blog time, time for a super scary Halloween edition filled with spooks, ghosts and surprises. Terrors both large and small, the usual litany of candy and trick or treating fun and, for those who want such things, scathing social commentary!   OK, maybe not so much that. It’s been an exhausting run the last few months and I’m not sure I’m fully up to the task. Maybe 62% of the way there, even though I feel like I’m only running at 38% efficiency. I guess that means that my dilithium crystals are only at […]

So after the momentous elections that we just went through, and the fiery referendum (results pending!), you would think that us folks in Alberta would be ready to pack it in and take a wee siesta for a bit. After all, how much more excitement can one take, what with a newly elected mayor, who suddenly finds herself the talk of the town, for accomplishing something that has never been done – a woman as mayor of Calgary.   Not only that, we had close to 35% participation in a referendum about stopping the shipment […]

OK, so no more cop-out blogs for at least the foreseeable future. I am instead going to try, this time around, to do a stream of consciousness style ramble, starting on one topic and moving, hopefully seamlessly, to various others in quick succession, most of them seemingly unrelated except that they probably bother me a little bit. So I guess they do have something in common after all?   COP 2162.   Or, more precisely, COP 26.   While it sounds like a bad sequel to a 1980’s Jean Claude Van Damme movie, COP 26 […]

Another week come and gone, I believe I have recovered sufficiently from the shock of being under in my gas forecast that I can take a deep breath and contemplate what this weekend is all about, and it’s not just week 5 of the NFL season. And as always around this time of year, the blog that was due on a Friday is being started on a Saturday and if I’m lucky may be finished by Monday. Which makes me the laziest writer around.   But I have an excuse. And it’s a good one. […]

Another three months gone by and it is time yet again to review where I am in my forecast. While I hate to pat myself on the back (pat, pat), I have to admit I am feeling more than a bit excited that for once I may have underestimated the commodity price deck. Given how badly I have whiffed on natural gas for the past 6 years, this turnabout is totally fairplay.   On the other hand, these high commodity prices are wreaking havoc with global energy complexes, manufacturing, pocketbooks and, perhaps, world peace. Or […]

Was it just this week that we had a federal election? Or was it this week that we had an all-out revolt in the Alberta-leading (un)United Conservative Party? Or was it both. It’s been a thing hasn’t it? Our fearless leader Justin Trudeau tripped over the finish line first in the least interesting election in Canadian history, the implications of which I will discuss below.   Mere days later, Jason Kenney, Premier of Alberta, found himself the subject of a potential non confidence vote that he deftly avoided by running over his underling, former Health […]

Alright fans, hangers on and wannabes. This is the week you have all been waiting for. The missive with the prediction. The rant on current issues and a review of our political future. A wash and rinse of the tea leaves, revealing the inner secrets of the Canadian body politic. A bona fide prognostication of epic proportions on this, the MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION EVER! Well at least the most important election of the modern era. Hmm, well maybe not. How about the most important election of the 21st century? No? ice Stephen Harper stumbled into […]

Well there I was, all ready to do my annual Election Review and Forecast (it is annual right? It certainly feels like it is) when I realized it might actually be premature and that there were other events and developments occurring around me that might be both more relevant and interesting to all of you. I mean, I know that the vagaries of our insular, parochial approach to politics and the world resonates so very strongly outside of our borders, but come on people, we just had our final debate last night and I haven’t […]

Ah Labour Day. That annual celebration of the righteousness of the downtrodden worker, the brave collectives and essential workers, putting it all on the line day after day in order to enrich the greedy capitalist fat cats who live for exploiting the masses.   Like me. I am happy to call myself a fat cat capitalist. Well at least I was until I bought into the hype and decided to buy into the latest mania – crypto currency promoted on Twitter. Oops! There goes retirement I guess. Now I’m more of a capitalist mangy feral […]

I was though, on vacation, before, but it was a pretty short one. Like the rest of the summer it’s just been a few days here and there. Why does that matter? It doesn’t really. I’m just wondering how I managed to not string together more weeks over the summer of home bound relaxation or summer in the over-priced country rental market, or days at a luxury resort somewhere.   Oh wait, I know. We are slammed. Super busy. We actually have more deals in the market at this moment in time than we have […]

Well folks, here I sit on Friday the 13th of August, a beautiful sunny day and I am busy typing away on this here summertime bi-weekly blog and searching for something that is both pithy enough to entertain you, my loyal readerships, yet brief enough that I can go outside and enjoy what could very well be the last nice weekend of the summer. Because you never know.   And that is something to be fearful of. And there is a lot of fear going around these days. Fear of the pandemic, fear of missing […]

Well here we are in Alberta, in the middle of the August Long Weekend, a traditional time of deep reflection and soul-searching, where the good people of the province take stock, peer through the haze of forest fire smoke and decide what they are going to do in the fall when they have to go to work.   True to form, our provincial government, in its infinite wisdom, has seen fit to smooth the way back to work by declaring that, as of August 15, the COVID pandemic is officially over and that all extra […]

I’m back! Did anyone miss me? That’s what I thought. Well I missed all of you. It has been a whole two weeks since I have written a blog and let me tell you, it was weird experience. I know I told you a month or so back that when summer arrived I was planning on switching to a every two weeks to recharge the proverbial creative batteries as they say and maybe, just maybe, do some client work. Or take time off. Or both really.   And it worked, to a certain extent. I […]

Has it been 6 months already? How time flies when your forecast is getting munched up and spat out like so much doggie kibble. I feel, rightly or wrongly, that this year has been particularly unpredictable, even if we do have the world’s most predictable politician sitting in the White House instead of that other dude.   Maybe it has something to do with Coronavirus recovery, maybe it has to do with the energy transition, I’m not 100% certain but the general sense I have is one of flux and volatility.   Or maybe I’m […]

Stuck in a hard place this week. I have two traditional blathering blogs that I do at this time of year. The first is a review of my Fearless ForecastTM, wherein I assess the damage I have done to my credibility at the halfway point of the year. The second is an annual Canada Day blog where I recycle some thoughts on this weird country we live in. My issue of course is that Canada Day is July 1, a Thursday and the end of Q2 is June 30, a Wednesday and today, of course, […]

Well folks, since last week was a review of referendum questions including that whopper that happened in 1980 in Quebec that I had to live through as a spry 15 year old budding political activist (not even remotely true BTW) and the Habs are in the Stanley Cup semi-finals, it is only appropriate that I continue this trip down memory lane.   Of course I do this every year at this time, mostly because I’m lazy and I tend to do affair amount of blog repetition, but also because summer is coming and it is, […]

Well there you go. The Alberta government has finally come up with its referendum question on equalization and has announced it to much fanfare and derision. Fanfare of course is mostly of the self-congratulatory and siloed variety as the UCP is firmly in support of the positions it supports and derives its support from the supporters who support the things they support. Derision is the highly populated domain of everyone who thinks this is just another dumb idea.   Representative democracy is a pretty cool thing when it works. Direct voting on matters of great […]

Alright, first off, let’s just get this out of the way. Toronto lost. Montreal won. Nanny nanny boo boo. In the great Canadian hockey wars this is both an expected and unexpected outcome and a restoration of order to the universe. The last Canadian hockey team to win the Stanley Cup was the Canadiens in 1993 and since then it’s been an exercize in futility for a series of wannabes. This means that in order for a Canadian team to win the Cup, it will likely have to be the Canadiens. Of course they have […]

This is one of those weirdo weeks in the energy world that bear some scrutiny and analysis, if only to offset the gleeful dunking that the environmental/energy transition movement is currently engaging in, because I feel that the celebration is premature. Kind of like the CBC and the Toronto-centric media anointing the Maple Leafs as presumptive Stanley Cup favourites while they still haven’t yet ousted the pesky but woefully over-matched Habs from the first round of the NHL playoffs (note to Canada, it is 100% fitting that the first playoff game with actual people in […]

Ah, May 21. A day leading into the best weekend of the year for us Canadians. Any number of reasons. Primarily it is the first long weekend of the year where we aren’t typically house bound. Secondly, because of history.   What history you ask? Well let me edumacate you.   We used to call it Victoria Day in honour of the birthday of Queen Victoria who ruled the Commonwealth for what, 250 years prior to Queen Elizabeth the Second and just after the 1500 year reign of Queen Elizabeth the First. I’m sure there […]

So it has been an interesting week, has it not? I think so. But then I am a bit of a an information junkie and I like the chaos that seems to surround the energy industry so I can be forgiven for getting a little too excited at times by what is most certainly excruciating iterations of drying paint to others.   One of the most fun things in the news this week for us energy losers is pipelines. All sorts of them. Pipelines that work, pipelines that aren’t built, pipelines that are partly built, […]

The other day I was looking back at some of my old blogs looking for a little inspiration and I was struck by how in the before times I spent a lot of blog space looking at numbers (not only for ordering lists) and industry statistics and making pithy or wise commentary out of those numbers. These numbers included production numbers, prices and other meaningful stats that would tickle my fancy during the week and that I felt were somehow worthy of further reflection.   Yet somewhere along the way, I got away from that […]

Howdy all, I know many of us, especially here in Canada, have a rough go of it in April, but as the Timberlake dude says, don’t worry because tomorrow “It’s Gonna be May” and not a day too soon if I may say so myself. Which I will. April generally blows for many reasons, to layer in resurgent pandemic waves (I’m looking at you India, Ontario and Alberta), Tesla earnings and a pause in the energy rally just isn’t fair. Then the Kenney government decided to charge a user fee for fun. Come on guys! […]

Well, this week is going to mark a first of sorts for this blog – I’m going to put a new tome in this writer’s oeuvre and finally acknowledge an event that is universally loved by seemingly everyone I have ever known and, let’s be honest here, everybody else. I’m talking about the Academy Awards of course, the Oscars. The big night where the beautiful and smart people in Hollywood get together and celebrate themselves by talking about themselves and giving prizes to each other, all in the hopes that they will get noticed, either […]

You ever have one of those weeks that make you want to throw up your hands and walk away from everything? Check out and never check back in? Let someone else do your thing while you relax in the proverbial sun and enjoy bevvies in the (appropriately socially distanced of course and no more than 10 people) back yard? That would be this week. Started good, got weird, got really, really annoying. But now I am venting which is kind of a natural state for me so I suppose that’s a small win.   It’s […]