Crude Observations


OK, OK. I know. OK? I said I was going to go bi-weekly. And I will. Maybe in two weeks.


But unfortunately, the activity I was going to do instead of writing a blog – going to the gym for an extended workout to watch the end of the Netflix series I’ve been binging (The Recruit – quite good) – got rudely shunted to the side when the gym posted a notice that there would be no water available at the gym, all day.


And if you know me, and you know how much I sweat when I work out, you know how much not being able to shower is a sign of a coming apocalypse. It’s almost like it was Doomsday at the gym. So instead of fitness for me, it’s a blog for you. But I promise to make it short.


Speaking of Doomsday, I read the other day that the world famous doomsday clock now has us at the closest point to global thermonuclear annihilation than we have ever been. How scary is that right? I believe it said we are now 90 seconds away from nuclear midnight. It took me more than 90 seconds to think of and type this whole paragraph!


It goes without saying that we have Vlad “the Impaler” Putin to thank for this, with his invasion of Ukraine, NATO proxy warring by supporting Ukraine and all sorts of associated saber rattling.


I’m not getting climate change vibes with this though since as much as I think the eco-climate-justice warriors view 1.5 degrees of warming as an extinction event, no credible scientific analysis has ever suggested the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine).


Nor do I think we can lay all the blame at the feet of Justin Trudeau as notwithstanding his Just(in) Transition plan for every worker west of the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border, he’s just not that powerful.


That said, I think we owe it to ourselves to do the sober analysis and see if we can’t collectively figure out what else, aside from COVID, the threat of nuclear war and the Liberal Party of Canada’s Just(in) Transition plan may have contributed to that fateful 10 seconds coming off the clock for the first time since 2020.


This is important because if you do the math (10 seconds every three years), that means the world will end in 27 years.


Or 2050.






But I digress.


Let’s analyze this further and see what things are impacting this Doomsday acceleration so that we can take all necessary steps to avert disaster.


To that end, I called the nerds on the doomsday clock committee (of course there is a committee, they probably all get paid too) and got them to fill me in on the top doomsday impacting things we need to pay attention to.




Sure, I know it’s just a ponzi scheme wrapped up in a fraud served on a pump and dump get rich quick scheme, but crypto is everywhere and it is tearing apart society. Well, if you consider society the weird cult of crazies that exist on Twitter, the cryptobros and SBF’s of the world, the weird Gen Z and Millennial creeps who inhabit every corner of Cryptodom and the shameless shills on social media who, without even a whiff of knowledge or humility, pump the latest and greatest junkcoin to an unsuspecting mass of people who only want what only crypto can give them – fake money.


How does this contribute to Doomsday? Well when it finally all collapses, all these jokers are going to need jobs, food, shelter and a hug. Beware the Crypto-zombie apocalypse. You have been warned.


Canadian Health Care Reforms


Any rational observer knows that the Canadian health care system is teetering on the verge of collapse. This was the case long before COVID and the problems just compounded from there. Not enough staff. Not enough money. Too much bureaucracy. Not enough administration. Not enough beds. Rescheduled and cancelled surgeries. Wait times. Not enough doctors, nurses, nurse practitioners and orderlies. Not enough bedpans. Wait lists. Emergency room overcrowding.


Let’s face it, our publicly funded, single payer health care system is in dire need of a check up and a prescription refill.


Some provinces, taking matters into their own hands have opted to start using private surgical clinics to catch up on some surgical backlogs and using public dollars to pay for/fund those surgeries, instead of using public dollars to pay for those surgeries at hospitals that have no room. Honestly, the nerve. This is likely to lead to the collapse of the entire health care system where publicly funded yet privately delivered health care doesn’t even exist – except for all the places that it does. Since that is kinda how it works.


At any rate, you would think with all the howling about the hollowing out of health care in a callous Americanization scheme that the world is coming to the end and that any change to Canadian health care will advance that Doomsday clock. I’m skeptical, but these guys are scientists.


Donald Trump Won’t (Can’t?) Go Away


This is an easy one. Donald Trump’s election in 2016 was the catalyst to move the Doomsday Clock from 1 hour before midnight to 100 seconds to begin with, so his continued presence in the political landscape is bound to make it worse. It’s not just what he does, it’s going to be what anyone running against him is going to do to outflank him in the crazy department in order to win the MAGA. QAnon conspiracy theorist vote.


Not to mention the many lawsuits and potential criminal charges he faces and what his reaction to any one of them might be if it goes sideways for him.


Now we have the prospect of him returning to Twitter and Facebook. If his posts on Truth Social, his soon to be bankrupt alternative platform, are anything to go by, a return for Trump to actual social media is going to nothing short of an unhinged arsonist set loose in a fireworks factory.



Natural Gas Prices are Doing What Natural Gas Prices Do


Anyone remember November? The beginning(ish) of winter? I do. It was cold and there was some bad weather coming. Natural gas production was at all time highs and storage was pretty much inline with prior years. Natural gas prices at the time were around $6 an Mcf, which seemed consistent with the global price, general scarcity, demand and, well, the market. Fast forward TWO MONTHS and guess what. It’s winter. It’s cold. Production is at similar levels and storage is in line with prior years. Except prices are now below $3 an Mcf for no other discernible reason except “because”.


This is the pain of natty – it will always disappoint. Either the price will collapse and take all your portfolio with it or, the price will rocket and your home utility bill with explode because you prefer to scramble your eggs on a gas cooktop as opposed to a electric. Either way you are pooched and no amount of faith in Mike Rose and Tourmaline can make you feel good about yourself.


Nowhere is the stupidity of natural gas better reflected than in the stock price of natural gas fired electricity generator Transalta whose stock price moves down no matter what happens with the price of gas, demand for power and the selling price of electricity. And yes, because you will ask, I am a shareholder.


Elon Musk


I don’t know how much I need to say here. Elon Musk is a mercurial disruptor. The (maybe, depending on the day of the week) richest man on the planet and the world record holder for biggest loss of net worth in a year (yay for participation trophies!). He is also the owner of Twitter, which in 2018 was at least partially responsible for the 10 second reduction in our Doomsday countdown. As we all know, Twitter has been nothing but a perfect gathering place since the takeover and the interest payments on the massive amount of debt are all current. Nothing to see here.


Except Elon, or Mr. Tweet as he calls himself, has set himself about reinstating all the crackpot, right wing, nazi symp, with supremacist, anti-semite and generiacally racist scumbag accounts he could find. All in the name of civil rights, first amendment (not in my country!) and free speech wrappers he can find. Then he subjected every user to a “For you” vs “following” timeline where the algorithm determines what post and from whom you get to see.


I can tell you, I don’t follow Charlie Kirk. Ted Cruz. Marjorie Taylor Green. Lauren Boebert and other purveyors of right wing BS. Although I do sympathize certain GOP economic policies as it relates to energy and oil and gas. Does this make me fair game to get all the rest of the nonsense?


I never saw any of this crap before Elon and I am now inundated. The line is pretty straight.


Elon, you are a Doomsday puppet.


Sports is in Turmoil


Look, you may not think this is a big deal, but you pay me to watch and analyze trends. And I can tell you, the biggest trend of all that is giving me the heebie-jeebies is the turomoil that I see in sports – professional or otherwise. It is a leading indicator for the end of the world.


Consider some of the following from the last year and current environment in sports.


Tom Brady is not in the Super Bowl – not only that, but he played like a 45 year old quarterback this year and fished sub 500. The Maple Leafs are a good hockey team and have a reasonable chance of advancing more than one round in the playoffs. This despite having the most selfish player in the NHL on their roster in Austen Matthews (did I spell that right? I don’t care!). I wouldn’t even be averse to seeing Mitch Marner and John Tavares lift a cup – but the rest of them can suck it.


The Bruins are a beast – why can’t they lose? And Brad Marchant is the most despicable athlete in professional sports.


Mr Irrelevant may quarterback the 49ers to a ring.


The Sacramento Kings have a better record than the LeBron James led Los Angeles Lakers.


Professional Wrestling is apparently scripted and fake! Who knew?!?!?!


The Major League Baseball Hall of Fame just voted me into Cooperstown.


What is actually going on?


This is terrifying stuff.


Despite Interest Rates Rising and an impending recession, people can’t stop chasing tech


Far be it from me to comment on where people are putting their money, but we aren’t in a transition from recession to recovery. We are on the precipice looking at a recession and wondering how deep and awful it is going to be. Why are you buying stock in companies whose earning potential depends on low interest rates forever, persistent above trend growth and an ever-increasing market share?


It’s madness. Multiples of revenue don’t matter when 5% to 10% of the labour force is being laid off at the drop of a hat. It’s not cost-saving delivery of incremental cash flow – it’s triage. When a company says they are over-valued, over-staffed and likely to see declining revenue and profitability, believe them. Please.


We have just gone through one of the most rapid and aggressive tightening cycles in history. Now people are reading market tea leaves that the unwinding of this will be just as fast. Don’t believe it. It ain’t happening. High prices are here to stay. Deflation isn’t happening. The consumer is out of gas, money, credit and desire. Variable rate debt is coming for all of us. Stay away from Crypto, real estate and “growth” stocks.


Seriously. This is Doomsday.



Pierre Poilievre may in fact be the devil.


Think about it. He has the look. And he’s mean and sarcastic just like you would think Satan would be. He seems on the surface to be just a regular guy who is kinda nerdy and has a wood fetish, but what do we really know about him? He’s from Calgary – which is of course a big strike. He’s conservative, male and smarmy. Strike. Strike. Strike. He probably carries a briefcase. Devil!


He also likes (liked?) crypto (see above). He’s got a weird appeal for people who like convoys.


I would be concerned.


OK, Fine. The Just Transition


Fine. I have to admit. Last week I made fun of the Just(in) Transition. But this week I have to look at it for what it is. A Doomsday weapon tossed into Alberta’s lap. It’s awful. It’s a plan to ensure that federal supports exist to help displaced workers transition in the face of a changing energy mix. How awful is that???? Seriously folks, this isn’t doomsday. Well for anyone except those affected. Who most levels of government don’t really care about anyway, except where they can be exploited for political gain.


That’s the Doomsday. Regular people. Neighbours. Friends. Acquaintances. Clients. Passersby. Treated as just so much baggage in the furtherance of some political or global elite approval seeking agenda.


We get the transition. We know it’s coming. Toss is some shekels. We can figure it out. Stop patronizing.


The Doomsday effect here is a level of government thinking to impose a “plan” on a population that maybe doesn’t want or isn’t ready or doesn’t see the need for radical change.


It’s in governments being so ideologically rigid they can’t see the error in their ways.


Not in Canada you say? Ha!


A letter I agree with


It’s no secret I am not a big Danielle Smith fan. I hate (to be mild) a lot of her Alberta first policies as unworkable and just plain misguided. I don’t actually care about her whole COVID jihad and think that an Alberta Pension Plan, Alberta Police Force and the Sovereignty Act are comedic distractions from the serious business of governing one of the more important provinces in Canada during what are going to be rocky economic times.


But I will give credit where it is due and I absolutely love this letter, as should all of you. Offer of dialogue. Position of strength. Cogent argument.


Letter to Trudeau


More if this, less of the nonsense. The only way the UCP can win in May.


Is this an end of times moment? Are we at 5 seconds?










Ha. Kidding.




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