Crude Observations

A Calendar’s Worth of Comment

Well, as our friends down South finally get around to celebrating Thanksgiving, I think it is safe to say that we have finally hit the holiday season. I don’t know what gave it away – the endless deluge of Christmas ditties while standing uncommunicative in the grocery store check out line, the Valentine’s display at Costco, the endless snowfalls we’ve endured, the annual Hallmark channel assault of Christmas movies or the lights and the trees that have sprung up on pretty much every house in the neighbourhood (except mine). Any one of those factors could be the giveaway.


At any rate, Christmas is that time of year that always seems so far away until whammo, there it is – and we all come to the crushing realization that we haven’t even started shopping or otherwise getting ready for the festivities. Interestingly, one way of managing that crisis is to use a “calendar”, because that shows you how many days you have until you really need to hit the panic button. And as luck would have it, you can buy a calendar that actually does the counting down for you and rewards you with a daily chocolate for doing so! I am referring of course to Advent calendars. Look, I know the purpose of the Advent calendar isn’t serve as a shopping guide. But given that you can now get a cannabis Advent calendar, I think you should all cut me a little slack for suggesting my own uses for one.


So, where am I going with this and what does an energy-related blog have to do with Advent calendars? Well I’m glad you asked. Because the below links will take you to my very own Crude Observations Advent calendar, complete with an energy treat for each day.  I will leave it up to you if you want to read it all at once or actually use it for the purpose it was intended. I am more of an immediate gratification kind of guy, those 24 chocolates for $2.99 calendars don’t stand a chance with me – so you can guess which course of action I would recommend…


OK, here’s how it works – the first link (“one day at a time”) is for the legit Advent calendar which will only let you open the window on the actual day – annoying right? But for traditionalists, I think you may appreciate that layer of security and anticipation.


The second link (“All or Nothing”) is the developer “preview” link which will let you see each and any day you want, right now! I am guessing this is where most people will go because that’s where I would. If you could click the “close doors” button at the bottom of the linked page when you are done that would be much appreciated as it appears that it doesn’t reset for each discrete click. Apparently I should have beta tested this last night instead of five minutes ago. It’s pretty slick on the mobile app, but a bit clunky on the desktop. Anyway, too late now!


Have fun.


One Day at a Time


All or Nothing


Prices as at November 22, 2019

  • Oil prices are down for the week. WCS gap still high at ~ $20
    • Storage posted an increase week over week once again
    • Production is up slightly
    • Rig Counts: Alberta down 5; US down week over week
    • Natural gas storage above last year; approximately 5-year avg
  • WTI Crude: $55.22 ($57.90)
  • Western Canada Select: $35.57 ($38.74)
  • AECO Spot: $2.404 ($2.400)
  • NYMEX Gas: $2.261 ($2.64)
  • US/Canadian Dollar: $0.7529 ($0.7522)



  • As at November 22, 2019, US crude oil supplies were at 452.0 million barrels, an increase of 1.6 million barrels from the previous week and an increase of 1.5 million barrels above last year.
    • The number of days oil supply in storage is 28.1 compared to 26.8 last year at this time.
    • Production increased slightly for the week at 12.900 million barrels per day. Production last year at the same time was 11.700 million barrels per day.
    • Imports increased to 6.190 million barrels from 5.972 million barrels per day compared to 8.162 million barrels per day last year.
    • Crude exports from the US rose to 3.480 million barrels per day from 3.027 million barrels per day last week compared to 2.442 million barrels per day a year ago
    • Canadian exports to the US were 3.247 million barrels a day
    • Refinery inputs dropped slightly during the week to 16.334 million barrels per day
  • As at November 22, 2019, US natural gas in storage was 3,610 billion cubic feet (Bcf), which is 1% lower than the 5-year average and about 18% higher than last year’s level, following an implied net withdrawal of 28 Bcf during the report week
    • As at November 15, 2019, overall U.S. natural gas consumption fell by 5% during the report week.
    • Production was flat for the week. Imports from Canada fell 17% from the week before. Exports to Mexico were unchanged for the week
    • LNG exports totaled 43 Bcf
  • As of November 27, 2019, the onshore Canadian rig count was down 11 at 124 (AB – 86; BC – 10; SK – 25; MB – 3; Other – 2). Rig count for the same period last year was 197.
  • US Onshore Oil rig count at November 27, 2019 is at 668, down 3 from the week prior.
    • Peak rig count was October 10, 2014 at 1,609
  • Natural gas rigs drilling in the United States is up 2 at 131.
    • Peak rig count before the downturn was November 11, 2014 at 356 (note the actual peak gas rig count was 1,606 on August 29, 2008)
  • Offshore rig count was flat at 22.
    • Offshore peak rig count at January 1, 2015 was 55

US split of Oil vs Gas rigs is 84%/16%, in Canada the split is 61%/39%


Trump Watch: Back to Florida for football and turkey. Going to be Huuuuuuge.

Kenney Watch (new!)Egad – the great Prestige Liquor “not-so” scandal of 2019

Trudeau Watch (for balance): Low-profile PM?? First confidence vote approaches Dec. 10th

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