You know what? I was on vacation. I don’t need this crap.

 

And now I guess I need to write a blog finally this summer between all my trips here there and everywhere.

 

Typically, when I do these summary blogs at the end of the summer it takes the form of “things I learned on my travels” but as the saying goes:

 

“Events dear boy”

 

And I think it is fair to say there have been some events in the last little while.

 

Let’s start off with the obvious. We had those absurd Section 232 (or is it 230? Or 238? I get so confused) Tariffs hanging over our heads, with a best before date of August 19, that were subsequently delayed to August 22 given the presence of an apparent breakthrough “deal” as announced by none other than Donald Trump on the eve of our tariff annihilation.

 

With the deal in hand, Canada’s negotiating team hunkered down in Washington with America’s Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to hammer out the actual deal terms and put pen to paper giving the respective leaders of each county (Donald Trump and Mark Carney in case you weren’t following) a fancy document each could sign allowing everyone to scurry off to the lake and enjoy the rest of the summer.

 

Except someone apparently wasn’t having it.

 

As per various sources, Howard (the Duck) Lutnick, whose official title is “Secretary of Commerce, Crypto Fraud and Shameless Shakedowns” entered the conversation and apparently decided that this particular deal wasn’t good enough and demanded that it be made tougher on Canada.

 

What happened next isn’t 100% clear. But I’ll try and piece it together for you all.

 

(Note – If you don’t have time and want the social media TL-DR version – it all went to shit and everyone is now mad and crazy.)

 

It seems Mr. Lutnick and crew decided to insert a whole bunch of last-minute poison pills into the agreement thinking that this was an honourable way to conduct negotiations.

 

Presumably this was presented as a take it or leave it by the slum-lord billionaire negotiating team, most likely awkwardly delivered by the aforementioned Greer.

 

As all of us should know by now, upon receipt of this unacceptable shakedown, Prime Minister Mark Carney told the Americans to shove it and recalled his negotiating team to Ottawa, leaving the Americans temporarily speechless and wondering why the nice Canadians in the room didn’t roll over like golden retrievers when presented with such an amazing deal.

 

Let’s call it Black Friday. And Black it was.

 

It didn’t take long of course for the partisan lines to be drawn and everyone with an opinion to launch a full-frontal assault via traditional and social media against, variously, the US, Donald Trump, Mark Carney, Nutlick, Danielle Smith, Doug Ford, Bob and Doug MacKenzie, Brookfield, Canada Geese, Lake Ontario, Quebec, the mainstream and lamestream media and anyone else who could reasonably be affixed with a target.

 

Most of the anti American sentiment was decidedly nationalistic and of the Elbows Up (I know, I’m tired of it too) variety decrying the attempt by the US administration to screw Canada and Canadians.

 

On the other side, the criticism of Carney comes from both domestic and US sources with local yokels accusing him of being in it only for Brookfield or using the trade file as a lever to win support in upcoming by elections (that one was really dumb) or, of course, some WEF-based conspiracy theory about handing Canada over to some globalist cabal.

 

The truth of course is both more nuanced and straightforward than that.

 

Of course I can’t prove it beyond a reasonable doubt.

 

But I suspect it tracks closely to what both teams said if you read between the lines.

 

The Canadian team said that Americans insisted on including a bunch of new points that weren’t part of the original deal that proved ultimately unacceptable to Canada on both normal trade as well as national Sovereignty concerns.

 

The American team said they made amazing tariff and bigly generous trade offers, requests and concessions and that the Canadian side kept asking for changes and eventually walked when those changes didn’t come.

 

Both of these versions of events can be true on a top-down or summary basis. Bottom up? Really only one will pass the smell test.

 

And to be quite open, I’m going to side with you the Canadian version. Not because I’m a partisan hack and Carney-worshipper. Nothing of the sort (and seriously people, stop with the nonsense partisan battle-lines).

 

No, I’m going with team Canada because:

1) I’m a red-blooded Captain Canuck, and

2) only one side is running around hitting the media circuit (New York Times, CNN, OAN, Fox, NBC, CBS and, holy crap, even the CBC saying what a bunch of ungrateful morons and weaklings the Canadians are, how we shouldn’t expect to be treated like a state if we aren’t one, that our PM is nice but weak, how we are nasty people and horrible negotiators, that we’ve been ripping off the USA for years, that we wouldn’t exist as a nation or have an economy without the US, that the Premier of Ontario is a clown (well technically true), that we are a secret fifth column conduit for a Chinese incursions into the US, that we are weak, that we are strong, that we have trade barriers, that we are going to get hit yet again even harder by mega tariffs of 50% on the auto sector if we don’t smarten up and get our shit together and bend to the will of the Great Wizard of Oz, sorry President of the US and that the characterizations the Carney government is giving are just wrong, wrong, wrong (and cute) and that the American offer was just the best thing since Nanaimo bars and they don’t understand why we didn’t take the GODDAMN GREATEST TRADE DEAL EVER PUT TOGETHER FOR AN INGRATE COUNTRY THAT HAS DOESN’T EVEN HAVE A ARMY!

 

To me, these are not the actions of a counterparty whose position is grounded in reasonable accommodation and righteousness. It’s the petulant and hyperventilating reaction of a grifter and bully who has just been called on their own bullshit.

 

And as the week passed and as dribs and drabs finally started to emerge of what may actually have happened or been attempted to be inserted that got Canada so incensed, it’s increasingly clear that the insinuations of bad faith negotiations on the part of the Americans are not as unbelievable as the anti-Carney social media industry would have us all believe.

 

I’m sure this will all change but among the things I have heard or have seen confirmed’ish:

• tariff reductions on autos (yay) but subject to very high American content rules that very few vehicles meet (hmm, that’s bad right?)
• the exclusion of heavy-duty vehicles – ie trucks made by Ford, which are a huge deal to Canada.
• some form of angst about French language requirements and content rules
• the halving of the illegal steel tariffs but subject to an undefined quota.
• same deal for aluminum
• some form of cockamamie veto over what trade deals Canada is allowed to enter
• liquor liquor liquor back on the shelves
• rumblings about rolling back “buy Canada” provisions in government contracts
• trumps picture on the new $50
• unfettered access to water
• Canada goose renamed America Goose

 

In an individual basis, each one of these can be discreetly addressed. But taken as a whole? After Trump and Canada announced a deal? This is a giant stinker.

 

There is no way. At all. Zero chance. Nada. Zilch. That our negotiating and /or the PM would have EVER agreed to those terms. Which makes me curious – was there ever a desire for a deal in the first place? Or was this just show.

 

Judging by the overreaction, I feel like the US thought they had us in a super vulnerable position and grossly miscalculated. Not that we aren’t vulnerable, we most certainly are and this is going to hurt.

 

However, the miscalculation was to the Canadian team’s mettle and the level of support that politely telling the US to pound sand actually has.

 

And that after 18 months of being threatened, mocked, listening to  musings about annexing us, 51st state nonsense, insulting our government by calling the PM governor, interfering in our domestinc politics via support for Alberta’s sovereignty muppets, the imposition of punitive, illegal and contract breaking tariffs, getting our economy whipsawed by an uncecessary and disastrous war in Iran, continued smug insults from the media and the rest of the administration and now the attempted bad faith bullying … Well at some point even happy go lucky Canada reaches a breaking point and we basically said to the US Administration enough is fucking enough. You want/need a trade war? Fine. Two can play the game. Bring it on.

 

And so here we are.

 

I don’t agree with everything Mark Carney does or many of his policies.

 

But on this play? I am 100% behind him. If even half of what was presented is indeed the case, he had no choice.

 

It’s going to suck. The only question is how long.

 

We are in a tit for tat battle and the retaliatory tariffs to the retaliatory tariffs to the retaliatory tariffs to the illegal initial tariffs have been announced and go into effect after Labour Day.

 

Here’s what I wrote on X a few days ago and I stand by it.

 

“A shitty deal locks in a shitty outcome. Canada was right to walk. Anyone who says otherwise isn’t thinking in terms of what is good for the country as a whole which, last time I checked, still exists.

 

The China thing really bothers me. The US does massive trade with China dwarfing us on an absolute and per capita basis, they just don’t like seeing their influence get affected, but we should be free to do what we want. If they want better relations with us over China trade then maybe a feather instead of a jackhammer. Also, commenting that we should have diversified away from the US over the last 20 years is both perfect hindsight (which is pointless navel-gazing) and goes against the whole “we better watch out what we do with China because the US might get mad”. Let’s pick a lane.

 

There is nothing wrong with walking away. We should expect our government to show some balls on our behalf. Like enough with making fun of “Elbows Up”. It’s annoying as F*** but anyone who has ever negotiated ANY DEAL with Americans knows it’s a Heads I Win – Tails You Lose game they are trained to play, not the Canadian/British snip, snip to find the middle ground. This is only exacerbated by the last-minute brinksmanship of the NYC developer and his laptop crony Nutlick, who apparently was the one who showed up at the 11th hour to spike the deal – “we want this, this and this or we don’t sign” is bullshit and needed to be called.

 

It isn’t going to be permanent. It never is, because tariff regimes by nature are harmful and unsustainable because the costs and revenues are artificial. Every historic US dalliance in tariffs has proven to be disastrous. Patience is a virtue as long as people realize that nothing is without sacrifice.

 

As for the political commentary, let’s let the primaries play out. Regardless of what the fringe Dems are doing and the DSA movement, the primaries are local and with an approval of 33% and a never-ending war with Iran and now, apparently, Canada, the underlying angst is not going away.”

 

What does Canada need to do?

 

We need to pull together as well as pull it together.

 

This is the biggest threat we have faced economically in a long time and this time it isn’t just some naturally occurring phenomenon tied to a business cycle. It’s directed, guided and malevolent.

 

I know there are currently a few layers of criticism directed at the canuck side so let’s quickly dig into those.

 

Show the Document

 

Let’s dispense of this quickly. There is no scenario where “showing the document” to either the opposition or the media helps Canada in its negotiations. We are a “country” negotiating with another “country”. We don’t need to make them look bad by showing their nonsense power play to CTV News. Also we don’t need to justify how negotiations are being conducted to an opposition who still hasn’t figured out whose side they are on (hint – Canada’s).

 

Finally, no one in their right mind is going to share what their red lines are, what they rejected, where they might compromise or what their strategy is mid negotiation – which is where we are.

 

There is a reason that cards are dealt face-down in poker.

 

Oil

 

Stop. This is the dumbest idea of all the dumb ideas out there. It is nothing less than mutually agreed destruction. Yes, I know that Western Canada supplies virtually all of the US’s imports of fossil fuels. The temptation to hammer them with an export tax is overwhelming. BUT… BUT… 80% of Ontario and Quebec’s crude imports also come from Western Canada. BUT… BUT… because we don’t have an “in-country” pipleline network, that 80% is transported via pipeline through the United States on the Enbridge Mainline via Lines 5, 9 and I think some randim one called 68. These are the same lines that feed the Midwest refineries that will shut down without Canadian oil.

 

Export tax on one will lead to charges and or shutdowns on the other. Ontario and Quebec will very quickly run out of oil. As will Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio and northern New York and Pennsylvania among other.

 

MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION.

 

Nuclear détente works for a reason. Frea of the unthinkable. This is the same. There is no contingency for getting oil from Saint John New Brunswick to Montreal and Sarnia. None. There is no contingency for replacing Canadian oil in the Midwest. None.

 

This idea needs to stay parked in the glass box that is labelled “break only if we are truly and absolutely screwed”.

 

The Premiers

 

The mains characters in this one-act play are Doug Ford and Danielle Smith.  Quebec and BC matter a bit but they aren’t the main actors here.

 

One is being called a clown for his reckless bombast, inability to shut his trap and pithy schoolyard insults and taunts of Donald Trump and the other is called a traitor for her desire to placate the USA and return to the negotiating table while keeping oil production out of the toolkit.

 

Views on each are varied. Here’s mine.

 

If I’m Mark Carney, I want them both on my team and, most importantly, I want to use their greatest assets – Ford’s Mr. Stumble Bumble Everyman and Smith the sliver-tongued the pro-energy cash conciliator as weapons in my negotiating kit.

 

Why in the world does Mark Carney need to be the asshole in this whole deal if he can have Doug Ford do it for him. Similarly, if he needs someone to be the back channel “voice of reason and moderation” who better to deliver that message than someone who clearly is capable of walking both a rhetorical and political tightrope than Danielle Smith?

 

As someone who negotiates deals for a living, this is a veritable cornucopia of tools and weapons to have at your disposal.  If you’re not using, you’re losing. Tactically dispatching one then the other whether to media, backchannel or as foils to each other is a luxury that any leader would dream of.

 

I’d put Danielle Smith up against Lutnick on a talk show anywhere, any day of the week and if you want something wrecked as a distraction by the horse in the hospital, there is no one better than Dougie.

 

Mark C can shrug his shoulders and say “Donald, what are you gonna do – the kids need to vent!”

 

Meanwhile, as it regards Carney, it’s gotta be the steady hand at play here. He needs to be careful not to overplay and be measured. It’s going to cost the economy a bundle but patience will inevitably win out. This is why the counter-tariffs are very targeted and have a window before they come into force. They allow for a cooling off period.

 

Not because of midterms (though that helps), or Trump’s age or a lame duck back of mandate strategy, but because of the psychology of deals.

 

The counterparty in this has clearly demonstrated that they want a deal of some sort and, let’s be honest, aren’t that well known for their patience or finesse.

 

They do know what leverage we have over them. As a refresher – oil, gas, electricity, uranium, potash. And the longer we DON’T use that leverage, and the more we have the moronic and painful debate about it, the more potent it becomes. There may even in fact be a time to use it. But in all reality, the threat of it being used is just as effective.

 

So Whaddyagonnado?

 

Once all the threats and insults subside, the narcissism and desire to be liked and seen as an extraordinary deal maker will take over. Some people call it the TACO. I just call it “this is where this was always going to end up. We just needed them to realize it.”

 

Meanwhile, now is the time to organize, draw up plans and get out shit together. And above all, don’t lose our nerve for some shiny bauble that some talking head said if the way to go.

 

That’s my two cents. Canadian. One and a half cents American.

 

No one wins a trade war, especially between natural allies.

 

OK fine. In this trade war, there can be only one winner. China. Is that what we all want?

 

OK – back on vacation for a week – see you in the new year. I mean after Labour Day. Go NFL! Even though I am boycotting all things American. Except that. Sorry. Not sorry.

 

PS – notice who I didn’t mention once? Yup, that’s right. They have made themselves irrelevant. They need to think about why that happened.