Well, we are slowly winding our way into full time summer and by the time this is published, our August long weekend will be just around the corner. What this means is that this is the time of year when I slowly but surely live up to my promise to take a blog break, recharge the batteries and see what the world outside of Alberta has in store for me and my family.

Or, it’s a chaotic time when we are bolting together a series of mini-vacations around and between various and sundry family obligations like getting two kids set up at two separate universities in two separate countries at different times.

Regardless, this much road time pretty much dictates that I won’t be getting the prime blog-writing windows that I am used to so by necessity I am forced to take a break.

But this doesn’t mean that I won’t be thinking about topics! I can never get away from that, because those topics are, as always, in my face. Much as they are in your face.

I like to call this “Things I am Watching” or “Subjects for Future Blogs” or “Pay Attention to These Things for the Rest of the Year Or Else”.

No matter what the title, there are lots of them, because we do after all live in a volatile world. So here goes.

When is a bridge actually a metaphor?

I think by now we all know far too much about the Elbows Up Bridge, formerly known as the Gordie Howe Bridge, formerly known as the “We are tired of the monopoly owners of the Ambassador Bridge and need an alternative that doesn’t dump into residential neighbourhoods” bridge. I don’t know that I will write a blog about this but I think this bridge is a metaphor for everything that is right and everything that is wrong with our relationship with the United States.

The bridge itself came to being because the privately-owned Ambassador Bridge, which is also the busiest commercial border crossing in North America, was insufficient to meet the growing traffic and trade needs of both Canada and the United States. Canada wanted a new bridge more and in 2012 the Harper government struck a deal with Michigan and the United States to fund and build the bridge itself in a complicated transaction that would eventually see Canada paid back and the bridge owned 50/50 by Canada and Michigan. That deal was ultimately approved by the Trump 1.0 administration and construction began.

Fast forward to this year and the bridge is complete, the owners of the Ambassador Bridge are still mighty pissed and as seems to be the case over and over, the Trump 2.0 administration has a severe case of amnesia and now thinks they need a better “deal” and so after cancelling the opening of the bridge over and over, they have struck a sidebar deal with Canada that flips some of the funding and how Canada gets paid back on its head.

Both sides are out there busily spinning this as a win for each and in the absence of proper information, analysis and veracity coming from either side this has become a colossal political disaster, in particular for the Carney government because no one believes we are going to get paid and their communications was epically disastrous. Note that in my humble opinion, it’s all a bunch of smoke and mirrors, we are getting paid back and Carney gave the US a semantic upper hand while preserving most of the financial one. Unfortunately, he gave his domestic opponents and the media the equivalent of a shovel to smack him over the head with.

It’s Canada/US in a nutshell. We combine in innovative ways to build great things together but with the passage of time it is never good enough, partisanship steps in and wrecks it to the detriment of regular people and then everyone moves on like it’s no big deal and forgets about it. Just like the on again, off again Keystone XL.

At any rate, I am still digging into this and have many theories, but prefer to wait until it is open to wrote about it so I don’t jinx it further.

Tariff mania 3.0 v 6.7

True to form, one day after hanging with Mark Carney at the World Cup Final, Donald Trump decided the appropriate way of expressing his appreciation and good feelings towards co-host and friendly neighbour Canada was to make use of a never before dusted off Depression-era, Smoot-Hawley statute giving emergency tariff powers to enact 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, including many USMCA covered tariff-free goods like liquor, hockey sticks and cement. All this is in response to everyone being in a snit about tariffs and bans that Canada put in place as retaliation to the first round of illegal tariffs. The excuse this time is that Canada “treats the US very badly” (which on its own is an annoying expression) in dairy (we don’t) and has a liquor ban (this is provincial) and levies tariffs on certain auto imports (yes, in retaliation to your dumb tariffs). These tariffs will take effect on August 19, so I have lots of time to contemplate a blog about them. Who knows, maybe they will go away by then. At least there aren’t any wildfire smoke penalties to worry about.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve 101

As the US continues to alternatively bomb the heck out of or respond to desperate peace-seeking phone calls from Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, now joined by the other oil chokepoint – the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, currently patrolled by the Iranian aligned Houthis. Aside from the fact that this is now characterizable as a war on two fronts, the restrictions on supply mean that the Strategic Petroleum Reserves around the world will continue to support demand, including the much vaunted US SPR. About which surprisingly little seems to actually be known but since we are in the process of emptying it out, it feels like an opportune time to look at what that actually means including what is meant by empty? Because we are testing the limits!

Mid Term Elections – what’s at stake?

Everyone keeps talking about the US mid-term elections like they might be important. OK, they are. The mid-terms are a unique element of the US Congressional system where congressmen serve two year terms and Senators serve 6 year terms which means that no matter who the president is or from what party, 2 years after the presidential election, the entire Congress and a chunk of the Senate comes up for re-election. Republicans currently control everything. Mid-terms are often a repudiation of incumbents. The outcome of this one will be significant either way. Bring your photo ID.

What Can the Conservatives do to Win?

This is proposed to be about Canada and Pierre Poilievre and a discussion on whether he is the right guy, has the right strategy, needs better poetry and rhyming skills and what the party can or should do to try and unseat the current Mark Carney Love-in and the Liberal Party. The Conservatives in Canada feel broken and confused. It is hard to tell what they stand for aside from hyper-partisanship and wanting a deal at any costs with the United States. They have time to figure it out, but it ain’t working now.

Whither the Price of Oil

The price of oil was pushing $100 in May, then we have the MOU cease fire and prices gave up everything when a few ships made it through the Strait but with the renewal in hostilities have rocketed back up to where they were. In the meantime, the Straits (see above) are closed, SPR’s are draining, inventories are dwindling, demand remains strong, China is market manipulating, Russia is on fire, Canada is building pipelines, tanks are bottoming, storms are coming, bombs are falling, jaws are boning, ships are burning and sinking, markets are shrugging and Murray is cashing in. So what does it all mean for prices that are currently exhibiting a bit if skittishness? We will tackle that!

National Unity – is it worth the effort or should we sit this one out?

Alberta has its referendum on whether to have a referendum on October 19. I suppose I should do up something about that. So, I’m not going to sit this one out. Duh. But I’m not in a hurry. To be honest I feel the separatist fervour to no longer be in the ascendancy. I don’t know if it’s because it’s summer and all the separatists have gone to Kelowna or whether people are tuning them out, but the dialogue has cooled off quite a bit. Maybe the algorithm figured out I spend too much time making fun of separatist stuff so my content has been curated, but I’m definitely seeing less. And the polls are showing support is cooling. Anyway, I suppose I have to write about it.

Production Quotas – Dangerous Cartels or ensuring Betty J Farmer can send her kid to school

Since one of the major trade irritants between Canada and the United States has always been and will remain until it is solved, dairy, I guess we will need to do a deep dive into the whole shlemozzle to figure it out. I mean, the sectors themselves are relatively small compared to each country’s GDP and as a trade item, at less than $2 billion in bilateral exchange, dairy represents less than 2/10ths of a percent of total US/Canada trade. BUT, and there is always a but, the DAIRY LOBBY in each country remains one of the most potent political forces in the history of democracies around the world, not just North America. In its simplest form, each country is protecting its dairy farmers and each wants access to the other. In Canada we manage production through quotas to keep prices up and protect farmers. In the US, they have a complex and generous subsidy program that keeps farmers whole in the face of competition and volatile prices. Each side has a valid case. And the US wants to sell us more finished milk products, just like those nasty Euros. To be honest, I don’t care for US milk, but there are many cheeses I want here, including Tillamook. But let’s maybe take a look at dairy a bit closer, because that is what an energy blog is supposed to do.

Pipes and Tubes

Pipes, tubes and energy infrastructure were all the rage in the first half of the year but will it last? Fads come and go pretty quickly now with few having the staying power of K-Pop or Jimothy the Raccoon. That said, we are hoping on both a LNG Canada Phase 2 FID and the decision on the designation of the TransMountain Extra Big and Crunchy pipeline proposal as being “in the national interest” by the Major Projects Office by October 1 of this year, just in time for the Alberta Separation Referendum nonsense. Coincidence is surely accidental.

Is this the year for the Maple Leafs?

No. And there will be no blog about that kind of nonsense. We take ourselves seriously here. The Habs on the other hand? The next Canadian team to win a Stanley Cup!!