Ah summer – will it ever come? Apparently everywhere across the country is going through a heat wave except poor old Alberta, where we have been having epic rainfall for what seems an entire month. Until this week. This is the week that the switch gets thrown. It’s Stampede week and that means two things:
I get to do my annual Stampede Blog, which is kind of an after the fact how-to and why for anyone still in the dark about what this whole shindig is about but also the segue into “summer-blog” where I go from weekly hectoring about this, that and the other thing to a more balanced “ad hoc” approach to hectoring. So expect this missive to be a bit more sporadic over the next two months until Labour Day.
Another reason the blog is going to be a bit more ad hoc is that my family will be spending a lot of time later this summer delivering kids to their respective universities and helping them get set up (i.e. being overly emotional and in the way). I know this is a rite of passage for most families in one form or another but I am still allowed to feel emotional about it. Maybe the topic for a wistful autumn retrospective.
At any rate, back to reality for just a minute.
We have a few positive things going on here in Alberta that are making the chattering classes sit up and take note including two pipeline announcements in one week (one credible, the other… not so much), META announcing a mega (not Maga) $13 billion data centre investment and, of course, an FID on Pembina’s Greenlight Electricity Centre – a $4.6 billion gas plant to power the previously mentioned data centre. Did I mention that drilling activity in Alberta year to date is the highest its been since 2014? No? Well it is.
All of which means that Alberta is Back, Baby! Not that we ever left, but there is a feeling of economic wind at our backs that I haven’t felt in a while, even if the spectre of this referendum in October is doing its best to apply the brakes to all the “fun stuff”.
While many people will point to Donald Trump and his oil price rallying excursion to Iran as a primary impetus to what is currently happening, I have a much simpler explanation.
It was just over a year ago that I had occasion to meet Prime Minister Mark Carney at a Stampede event and also spend two minutes chatting and telling him to keep up the pressure on Donald Trump and support the energy industry.
Since that very moment, our energy sector economic fortunes have been in an (albeit choppy) upswing.
I won’t take 100% credit, but you’re welcome.
Lots can change so I will check back in August but for now, I am going to leave you with an annual tradition like no other – an ode to the Calgary Stampede – warts and all.
Let me say first off that weather notwithstanding, Stampede is back with a vengeance. Some people, of course don’t share those views and that’s OK too. I say “almost” because really, there is nothing normal about the Stampede.
Unlike prior years (think the disastrous “Best Summer Ever” year) there are only a handful of people running around saying the sky is falling and we shouldn’t congregate in massive crowds because of the 297th wave of some Covid variant. Fortunately, most of us have moved on. To measles, but we’ve moved on.
The other cohort who is against Stampede is the social justice warrior class who feel that the Stampede organization is some mega-connected political influence machine for the governing UCP and opposition CPC, kind of like the Koch-funded Heritage Foundation in the United States.
Sorry folks. Hate to dispel that myth. The Stampede is a not-for-profit that puts on the “Greatest Outdoor Show on Earth”. It is run by dedicated staff that do tremendous things in the community year-round and serve as a rallying point for people in the city, province and country.
The Stampede is dependent on multiple levels of government for support and thus need to be apolitical. They may have a disproportionate number of conservative types on their board because that’s the demographic of the Calgary business community, but that is counter-balanced by staff and board representation from city council. They may have some outsized influence in the city, but that’s because they own a big shwack of land, smack dab in prime city real estate and, well, did I mention the Greatest Show on Earth?
That said, politicians do fundraise around it. But what politician wouldn’t? High profile event, lots of people, flip some pancakes, 10 second soundbite, move on. It’s a politician’s dream. And everyone does it. Carney, as noted above, came and did his pancake flip – and did a decent job on his second try (plus the pipeline). At least Trudeau didn’t show, which probably accounts for 50% of the happier mood in town. Poilievre of course was here. He gave a “stirring” speech about how Canada was broken and that the pipeline announcement was smoke and mirrors and that the northern route was better. It may have been well-received by his attendees but to be honest it felt flat to me and missed the moment – when is Pierre going to rise above the angry partisanship and be more statesmanlike? He needs to evolve if he ever wants the top job. Also, stop carrying on the conservative tradition of bad hats and cringy suits. From Stephen Harper and his backward hat and creepy leather vest we have evolved to an all white zoot suit and a white hat with a CPC logo – EGREGIOUS! Who is making these wardrobe decisions?
Danielle Smith was, well, everywhere.
My wife and I saw Nenshi on an escalator going to a private event.
New federal NDP leader was a no-show. Not sure he knows where Alberta is.
But the main story for me around Stampede? The workers. The community. The organizers. The grass-roots and the volunteers. The celebration for the city and the boost for the economy. For 10 days, there is a giant spotlight on Calgary that not even rampant separatist sentiment or Trump tariffs or Carney pancake weakness can dim.
And in honour of that, I am re-upping my annual “Ode to Stampede” to segue into vacation time. Hope you like it. Yahoo!
Ode to Stampede.
One of the great and (occasionally) annoying things about living and working in Calgary is navigating the annual all-consuming celebration of fun and cowboy hats that is the Calgary Stampede. Whether it’s surviving double-deep-fried scorpions coated in Oreo batter, boiled corn rolled in ground-up spicy Cheetos, mainlining mini-donuts or running the gauntlet of corporate gatherings, Stampede is a unique event in our city.
How unique? Well, it’s got its own action verb and language – that’s pretty unique.
“Have you been stampeding yet?” “Sure have, we were at the chucks the other day and then were given’r at Nashville North for a bit before heading to the Cowboys tent. Maybe the grounds on the weekend for the grandstand and plan on hitting the Stomp at the end of the week.” What?
In addition to being a well-known international tourist attraction, the Calgary Stampede is also a combination of rite of passage and a (mud-spattered) window into how the local economy is doing. It’s both a lagging and leading indicator of the mood of the city and province’s business community, more specifically the energy sector.
In boom times, the Stampede celebrations tend to be lavish, garish and quite often over the top – a true bacchanalian homage to the excesses that everyone associates with the energy sector.
In down years, the mood is decidedly somber, with many low-key events. The focus is on restraint and charitable contributions and many of the invitations (even the emailed ones!) will be in black and white.
In between, in what I will call the “transition years”, the party struggles to find its footing. And quite often it rains.
Added into the mix is a whole kabuki theatre sideshow of municipal, provincial and federal politicians and leaders of national and provincial parties all vying for the attention of the media and public at large by trying to prove their cowboy bonafides by flipping an endless parade of pancakes, exposing for all to see their astonishingly poor fashion choices and delivering tired political messages in a cowboy metaphor infused version of a western drawl.
Seriously though, it just wouldn’t be Stampede without some federal Liberal controversy or another stiff and awkwardly dressed conservative flipping pancakes and posing for pictures with some children and First Nations people (all in one if possible!) before dashing off to have important closed-door conversations with who knows who about who knows what. Although interestingly, most politicians fail to grasp that not much gets done during Stampede except parties and that the person they are talking to is most likely on their way to getting drunk or is still that way from the night before.
At any rate, no number of politicians flitting around, hosting breakfasts, building up or tearing down the economy and buying boots (seriously, is there anything more annoying than politicians doing their photo op boot purchases and sticking on their market study determined cowboy look?) can change the reality on the ground. The midway, the parties, the attendance, the rodeo, the chuckwagon races, the tarps for sale on the chuckwagons, the grandstand show (did I mention my kid was in that?) – these all tell us what may or may not be going on.
So, what is this year’s Stampede telling us?
Pent up energy
Brash
Back in the Saddle
Celebratory
Ready to seize the opportunity
While no longer an active Stampede show participant, I have spent less time on the grounds and out and about this year than I normally do but nonetheless I am knowledgeable enough to comment.
First off, despite affordability concerns, the crowds are larger than I anticipated and comparable to peak years. Even in Canada’s “technical-recession” state and with Donald Trump determined to wreck everyone’s business, everywhere is pretty crowded.
People are still lining up for $18 foot-long fries (which are gross by the way). All the usual stuff is happening, and everyone is Stampeding as if they were teenagers, including mine.
The one Grandstand show I attended was packed (did I mention my daughter used to be in it?) and contrary to prior experience, when the chuckwagon races were over the crowd did not thin out but instead stuck around for an exhilarating show celebrating Stampede, music and Canada, accompanied by an epic fireworks and drone show.
We spent some time walking the midway and sampling a disproportionate amount of fried food, and clearly there is a buzz, even in the face of bizarro weather and crowds. There was plenty of poutine, chicken wings and pickle lemonade. And a plethora of novelty food (cricket hot dogs) and deep fried whatever you want to deep fry along with a melting pot of foods from around the world. There was even a basketball game thrown in for good measure as the Calgary Surge (supported by this season ticket holder) played Vancouver at the Saddledome in front of a pretty big and excited crowd.
Worthy of note, the prices are sky-high – inflation was readily apparent in costs for everything pretty much across the board. I suspect some of that is to offset accelerating labour costs but $30 for a turkey leg seems out of reach for your average teenager or family of four.
Speaking of teenagers, holy freeholy Batman. While the adult population appeared large, the teen population was doubling down. Maybe they were always there, and I just didn’t notice because there were so many other people they blended in, but it was impressive. Kids clearly were bursting at the seams to get out and do “something” after another school year from hell and the Stampede has provided a much needed outdoor, social release of stress.
Worthy of note as well on top of the age demographic of the attendees is the decidedly multicultural makeup of the attendees with pretty much all of Calgary’s ethnic communities well represented on both the grounds and the grandstand.
Oh – for the COVID conscious? Masks are still visible with about 1 in every 10,000 attendees.
Politicians? I’m happy to report a zero count on that front at the grounds. This might have something to do with the very visible police presence throughout the grounds. My Carney experience last year notwithstanding. Wait a second, that’s a lie. We saw NDP leader and former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi on an escalator.
Oh, and it’s not Stampede unless some clumsy teen tries to pickpocket me and take my phone. Didn’t work BTW.
But the busy-ness reflects an energy I haven’t felt in a while. Which I guess is kind of where the Alberta economy currently sits.
Politically we are at a crossroads. Danielle Smith and the UCP are here until 2027 then we head to the polls. In the interim we have a referendum. Danielle’s style (gaffes aside) is decidedly populist and, on occasion, even someone as cynical as me warms up to her messaging. Then the inevitable happens. “Whoops – why would she do/say that?” I will say I appreciate the unabashed support for the energy sector and Alberta’s economy and any shot landed on Federal Liberals intrusion into our economic lifeblood. She got a bunch of pipeline stuff done – Yahoo! She is a federalist in theory but she is allowing this referendum to proceed.
On the federal side our one-year old patched together majority Liberal government led by the Mark Carney appears to want to try and mend fences with the energy sector as part of its attempt to counter Donald Trump. Meanwhile the conservative party actually feels a bit adrift.
On the energy side, we’ve got a commodity market that in pretty good shape. Rig counts in Canada are ripping. Still, pockets of the industry are flat out busy while others can’t turn a wheel. The mighty West Texas cash flow incinerator has slowed to a crawl, but recession fears, Iran excursion hangover and uncertainty and tariff mania are taking some air out of oil prices. Canadian producers are making more money than banks but as always stock prices are lagging.
TransMountain is open and gushing oil into the Lower Mainland.
LNG Canada is also shipping frozen gas. An FID on LNG2 can’t be far away and other projects are racing forward. BC is going to EXPLODE! Calm down, it’s from drilling. Not LNG catching a spark.
Even Quebec made a positive energy comment last month. But I suspect a Quebec government up for re-election may not beat the drum too hard on that.
It feels like something wants to happen, like the sector wants to bust out and race ahead but it’s still shackled to a lack of confidence in the market due to inflation, interest rates, tariffs, recession fears and ambivalence even in the face of promising messaging and announcements from the federal government.
It is not unusual to be confronted by this conflicting sense of optimism for the future and pessimism about our prospects, often in the same day, sometimes even in conversation with the same individual!
And I feel the mood at this year’s Stampede reflects that a bit – a big celebration because prices are good and we are making money hand over fist, but a bit adrift, floating in its bubble of uncertainty, fearful it will all come crashing down.
I am of course in no way suggesting that the Greatest Outdoor Show on Earth is anything but – I love Stampede, warts and all. But the reality is, and always has been, that the Stampede is a reflection of the mood of the city and that, as the city gets larger and more “sophisticated”, its personality and that of the Stampede gets more complicated and nuanced. Yet under it all is a manic and barely restrained energy – the dynamic, entrepreneurial, get it done spirit that is Calgary at its finest – just waiting for a spark. An attitude of “enough of this crap, time to get busy.”
Meanwhile, as the province has moved on from the last federal election, so has the business world. Even though we have this referendum coming up – the separatist movement has been basically shouted down for these weeks. God forbid that they interfere with Stampede – they will get crushed. Interesting anecdote, while watching the Grandstand Show last night the dancing drones in the sky formed into the shape of a red Canadian Maple Leaf which shockingly drew the loudest cheers of the night which was surprising to me, but then again, maybe not.
While most of the time you rarely get any serious or actual work done during Stampede, this year it has for sure been a lot of both and play. The phone is still ringing. Conversations have been real. Deals are getting advanced. It’s promising. It’s down to business, separatist headwinds and tariffs be damned. But everyone also really just wants to party.
So where does this all lead? Well, based on all my rather unscientific observations, I feel the city and the energy sector is ready to break out or already has. The starting gun has been fired. As the Rangeland Derby announcers say: “And they’re off”.
It’s Canadian firms like Suncor stepping up in the oilsands (and the chucks – they have a tarp!). It’s basins like the Montney that rival anything in the US. It’s Shell buying ARC. It’s a political environment that is fluid and dynamic but waking up to the reality that it needs a vibrant Alberta and energy sector to power a lot of the country. It’s young, energetic management teams taking over in the service sector (more tarps!). It’s deals getting done. It’s Calgary shaking off close to 132 months of being downturned, downsized and downtrodden with 28 months of pandemic fear and uncertainty layered onto the tail-end and saying enough is enough.
It’s a Stampede that started with a bang that gathered strength and swagger as the week went on, pretty much emblematic of where I see the Calgary and Alberta economy at this exact juncture in time.
It’s a Calgary and Alberta ready to assert itself in the broader Canadian context.
It’s getting better. It really is.
And I have a party to get to.
See you when I’m back – have a great midsummer.
Yahoo!
