Here it is everyone – the last blog of the pre-Summer period and it couldn’t have come at a better time, what with 35% tariffs being gifted to us by Donald Trump just yesterday, to make everyone’s day brighter. Expect that next week you won’t hear from me, and maybe not the week after. Or the week after that. Why you ask? Well, yours truly is taking off on vacation, which I am allowed to do apparently. And I won’t be allowed to write. More than likely. Because I will instead be driving. Some of the time. Here’s hoping it can at least be relaxing. And not cost me 35% more.
Did we really need more tariffs? As we all know, the last little while Donald Trump has been putting tariffs on anything he can see or has ever heard of in his life – “Shakespeare? 32.9% tariffs!”. Just the other day he announced 50% tariffs on copper, a globally traded commodity, essential in pretty much every industrial application in the world. Fun fact. The US produces only one half of the copper it consumes annually and has only 5% of the world’s reserves. It takes 29 years to commission a mine in the United States. So, Donald Trump, with his copper tariffs, has effectively hamstrung US industry since it relies on imported copper and now, in aggregate, that copper will be 25% more expensive. What’s next? 100% tariffs on imported oil? More letters like the one he sent Canada, Japan and South Korea? You know, staunch allies that have existing (and functioning) trade agreements with the US, that are basically toilet paper (which the US imports from Canada by the way – that Charmin squeeze just got way more expensive!).
I hate tariffs. Hey, you know who else hates tariffs? Prime Minister Mark Carney. How do I know? Well, in addition to being a classically trained economist, he basically told me that when I met him.
Wait, what’s that then?
Yes. It is true. I had the opportunity to meet the PM during a Stampede event which just goes to show you that if you stand still long enough at Stampede the whole world will go by you.
Anyway, I tell you this for a couple of reasons. The first and most obvious is the name drop. But a second and more compelling reason is that while I don’t agree with all his policies, I was happy to see him step into the lion’s den on this occasion and meet – at least some – Calgarians where they are – 5 hours into a rooftop party with country music being performed to perfection in the background, making small talk with anyone willing to risk the security phalanx.
And we had a good chat for my allotted time and I came away with a positive impression.
So in the spirit of Stampede and welcoming the world to Calgary, I welcome my closet Progressive Conservative Prime Minister to our world and will give him the benefit of the doubt as he continues to negotitate the highwire act of wrestling down our explosing deficits, negotiating trade with an unpredictable partner and meeting our international obligations in an increasingly dangerous.
We all said during the Trudeau years we needed an adult in the room. Well he’s our adult. Let’s go.
That said, lots can change so I will check back in August.
For now, I am going to leave you with an annual tradition like no other – an ode to the Calgary Stampede – warts and all.
Let me say first off that weather notwithstanding, Stampede is back with a vengeance. Some people, of course don’t share those views and that’s OK too. I say “almost” because really, there is nothing normal about the Stampede.
Unlike prior years (think the disastrous “Best Summer Ever” year) there are only a handful of people running around saying the sky is falling and we shouldn’t congregate in massive crowds because we are going to get a raging 297th wave of some Covid variant or its line-dancing cousin the BA 32.6 variant. Fortunately, most of us have moved on. To measles, but we’ve moved on. We understand COVID and the risks and the mitigating actions to take. We’ve hidden away, isolated and gotten jabbed. We are all ready to break out and party. I’m vaccinated. My family is. By and large everyone I know is. My extended family is. The Uber driver is. The waiter is. The fry guy is. The guy with the tin foil hat? Maybe not. Regardless, it’s time to put that behind us and move on.
The other cohort who is against Stampede is the social justice warrior class who feel that the Stampede organization is some mega-connected political influence machine for the governing UCP and opposition CPC, kind of like the Koch-funded Heritage Foundation in the United States.
Sorry folks. Hate to dispel that myth. The Stampede is a not-for-profit that puts on the “Greatest Show on Earth”. It is run by dedicated staff that do tremendous things in the community year-round and serve as a rallying point for people in the city, province and country.
The Stampede is dependent on multiple levels of government for support and thus need to be apolitical. They may have a disproportionate number of conservative types on their board because that’s the demographic of the Calgary business community, but that is counter-balanced by staff and board representation from city council. They may have some outsized influence in the city, but that’s because they own a big shwack of land, smack dab in prime city real estate and, well, did I mention the Greatest Show on Earth?
That said, politicians do fundraise around it. But what politician wouldn’t? High profile event, lots of people, flip some pancakes, 10 second soundbite, move on. It’s a politician’s dream. And everyone does it. Carney, as noted above, came and did his first pancake flip – it was an unmitigated failure as a pancake cook but met with levity. At least he didn’t chicken out like Trudeau last year. What a fragile flower. Poilievre of course was here. He gave a “stirring” speech wherein he called Carney a Trudeau clone. He went on stage at Nashville North and got cheers – but as my daughter who was there said, no one of her crew knew who he was – they cheer for everyone!
But the main story for me around Stampede? The workers. The community. The organizers. The grass-roots and the volunteers. The celebration for the city and the boost for the economy. For 10 days, there is a giant spotlight on Calgary that not even rampant separatist sentiment or Carney pancake weakness can dim.
And in honour of that, I am re-upping my annual “Ode to Stampede” to segue into vacation time. Hope you like it. Yahoo!
Ode to Stampede.
One of the great and (occasionally) annoying things about living and working in Calgary is navigating the annual all-consuming celebration of fun and cowboy hats that is the Calgary Stampede. Whether it’s surviving double-deep-fried scorpions coated in Oreo batter, boiled corn rolled in ground-up spicy Cheetos, mainlining mini-donuts or running the gauntlet of corporate gatherings, Stampede is a unique event in our city.
How unique? Well, it’s got its own action verb and language – that’s pretty unique.
“Have you been stampeding yet?” “Sure have, we were at the chucks the other day and then were given’r at Nashville North for a bit before heading to the Cowboys tent. Maybe the grounds on the weekend for the grandstand and plan on hitting the Stomp at the end of the week.” What?
In addition to being a well-known international tourist attraction, the Calgary Stampede is also a combination of rite of passage and a (mud-spattered) window into how the local economy is doing. It’s both a lagging and leading indicator of the mood of the city and province’s business community, more specifically the energy sector.
In boom times, the Stampede celebrations tend to be lavish, garish and quite often over the top – a true bacchanalian homage to the excesses that everyone associates with the energy sector.
In down years, the mood is decidedly somber, with many low-key events. The focus is on restraint and charitable contributions and many of the invitations (even the emailed ones!) will be in black and white.
In between, in what I will call the “transition years”, the party struggles to find its footing. And quite often it rains.
Added into the mix is a whole kabuki theatre sideshow of municipal, provincial and federal politicians and leaders of national and provincial parties all vying for the attention of the media and public at large by trying to prove their cowboy bonafides by flipping an endless parade of pancakes, exposing for all to see their astonishingly poor fashion choices and delivering tired political messages in a cowboy metaphor infused version of a western drawl.
Seriously though, it just wouldn’t be Stampede without some federal Liberal controversy or another stiff and awkwardly dressed conservative flipping pancakes and posing for pictures with some children and First Nations people (all in one if possible!) before dashing off to have important closed-door conversations with who knows who about who knows what. Although interestingly, most politicians fail to grasp that not much gets done during Stampede except parties and that the person they are talking to is most likely on their way to getting drunk or is still that way from the night before.
At any rate, no number of politicians flitting around, hosting breakfasts, building up or tearing down the economy and buying boots (seriously, is there anything more annoying than politicians doing their photo op boot purchases and sticking on their market study determined cowboy look?) can change the reality on the ground. The midway, the parties, the attendance, the rodeo, the chuckwagon races, the tarps for sale on the chuckwagons, the grandstand show (did I mention my kid is in that?) – these all tell us what may or may not be going on.
So, what is this year’s Stampede telling us?
Pent up energy
Brash
Back in the Saddle
Celebratory
Ready to seize the opportunity
While no longer an active Stampede show participant, I have spent less time on the grounds and out and about this year than I normally do but nonetheless I am knowledgeable enough to comment.
First off, despite some lingering COVID fearmongering and/or Twitter mocking of the whole event, the crowds are way larger than I anticipated. Even in Canada’s pre-recession state and with Donald Trump determined to wreck everyone’s business, everywhere is packed.
I am told that attendance is rivalling the best years (even if the weather isn’t) and if the 45-minute lineup to get foot-long fries (which are gross by the way) is any indication, it is massive. All the usual stuff is happening, and everyone is Stampeding as if they were teenagers.
The one Grandstand show I attended was packed (did I mention my daughter used to be in it?) and contrary to prior experience, when the chuckwagon races were over the crowd did not thin out but instead stuck around for an exhilarating show celebrating Stampede, music and Canada, accompanied by an epic fireworks and drone show.
We spent some time walking the midway and sampling a disproportionate amount of fried food, and clearly there is a buzz, even in the face of bizarro weather and big crowds. There was plenty of poutine, chicken wings and pickle lemonade. And a plethora of novelty food (cricket hot dogs) and deep fried whatever you want to deep fry along with a melting pot of foods from around the world. There was even a basketball game thrown in for good measure as the Calgary Surge (supported by this season ticket holder) played Montreal at the Saddledome in front of what felt like 10,000 fans.
Worthy of note, the prices are sky-high – inflation was readily apparent in costs for everything pretty much across the board. I suspect some of that is to offset accelerating labour costs but $30 for a turkey leg seems out of reach for your average teenager or family of four.
Speaking of teenagers, holy freeholy Batman. While the adult population appeared large, the teen population was doubling down. Maybe they were always there, and I just didn’t notice because there were so many other people they blended in, but it was impressive. Kids clearly were bursting at the seams to get out and do “something” after another school year from hell and the Stampede has provided a much needed outdoor, social release of stress.
Worthy of note as well on top of the age demographic of the attendees is the decidedly multicultural makeup of the attendees with pretty much all of Calgary’s ethnic communities well represented on both the grounds and the grandstand.
Oh – for the COVID conscious? Masks are still visible with about 1 in every 10,000 attendees.
Politicians? I’m happy to report a zero count on that front at the grounds. This might have something to do with the very visible police presence throughout the grounds. My Carney experience notwithstanding.
Oh, and it’s not Stampede unless some clumsy teen tries to pickpocket me and take my phone. Didn’t work BTW.
But the busy-ness reflects an energy I haven’t felt in a while. Which I guess is kind of where the Alberta economy currently sits.
Politically we have just moved on from a crossroads. Alberta has tossed the NDP to the side and we have Danielle Smith to lead us for the next 3 years. Her style (gaffes aside) is decidedly populist and, on occasion, even someone as cynical as me warms up to her messaging. Then the inevitable happens. “Whoops – why would she do/say that?” I will say I appreciate the unabashed support for the energy sector and Alberta’s economy and any shot landed on Federal Liberals intrusion into our economic lifeblood. The jury is out on some of the other initiatives. Time will tell!
On the federal side we have a shiny new minority Liberal government led by the aforementioned Mark Carney that appears to want to try and mend fences with the energy sector as part of its attempt to placate Donald Trump. Meanwhile the conservative party that thought it was going to rule the country now finds itself waiting to see if their leader can win a seat and get back into parliament (note to file – he can).
On the energy side, we’ve got a commodity market that lost its way in the first half of the year but is in a Goldilocks scenario that is neither too hot nor too cold. Rig counts in Canada are up, but not enough to pop the champagne. Pockets of the industry are flat out busy while others can’t turn a wheel. The mighty West Texas cash flow incinerator has slowed to a crawl, but recession fears, OPEC quota increases and tariff mania are taking some air out of oil prices. Canadian producers are making more money than banks but stock prices are lagging.
TransMountain is open and gushing oil into the Lower Mainland.
LNG Canada is also shipping frozen gas. BC is going to EXPLODE! From drilling. Not LNG catching a spark..
Europe is a de-industrializing energy disaster and we need to be doing more to help them replace Russian gas. Saved by a warm winter they managed to limp their way to record AC use this summer. A fast tracked LNG processing facility on the East Coast should be an unrelenting priority, but I suspect a Quebec government up for reelection may not beat the drum too hard on that.
It feels like something wants to happen, like the sector wants to bust out and race ahead but it’s still shackled to a lack of confidence in the market due to inflation, interest rates, tariffs, recession fears and ambivalence even in the face of promising messaging from the federal government.
It is not unusual to be confronted by this conflicting sense of optimism for the future and pessimism about our prospects, often in the same day, sometimes even in conversation with the same individual!
And I feel the mood at this year’s Stampede reflects that a bit – a big celebration because prices are decent and we are making money hand over fist, but a bit adrift, floating in its bubble of uncertainty, fearful it will all come crashing down.
I am of course in no way suggesting that the Greatest Outdoor Show on Earth is anything but – I love Stampede, warts and all. But the reality is, and always has been, that the Stampede is a reflection of the mood of the city and that, as the city gets larger and more “sophisticated”, its personality and that of the Stampede gets more complicated and nuanced. Yet under it all is a manic and barely restrained energy – the dynamic, entrepreneurial, get it done spirit that is Calgary at its finest – just waiting for a spark. An attitude of “enough of this crap, time to get busy.”
Meanwhile, as the province has moved on from federal the election (we have, right? The separatists have finally shut their yaps, right?), so has the business world. While most of the time you rarely get any serious or actual work done during Stampede, this year it has for sure been less work, more play. The phone is still ringing. Conversations have been real. Deals are getting advanced. It’s promising. It’s down to business, headwinds and tariffs be damned. But everyone really just wants to party.
So where does this all lead? Well, based on my rather unscientific observations, I feel the city and the energy sector is ready to break out or already has. The starting gun has been fired. As the Rangeland Derby announcers say: “And they’re off”.
It’s Canadian firms like CNRL stepping up in the oilsands. It’s basins like the Montney that rival anything in the US. It’s a political environment that is fluid and dynamic but waking up to the reality that it needs a vibrant Alberta and energy sector to power a lot of the country. It’s young, energetic management teams taking over in the service sector. It’s deals getting done. It’s Calgary shaking off close to 120 months of being downturned, downsized and downtrodden with 28 months of pandemic fear and uncertainty layered onto the tail-end and saying enough is enough.
It’s a Stampede that started with a bang that gathered strength and swagger as the week went on, pretty much emblematic of where I see the Calgary and Alberta economy at this exact juncture in time.
It’s getting better. It really is.
And I have a party to get to.
See you when I’m back – have a great midsummer.
Yahoo!
