Anything important happen this week? Any new US tariffs get announced? Any imminent threats to Canadian sovereignty? I feel like maybe something important happened. Someone got fired or some key event transpired. Was it American Thanksgiving? No, that wasn’t it. I mean, yes. It was American Thanksgiving and those two giant turkeys got pardoned, so there was that. But I don’t think that was it. Maybe we energy folks should have something to be thankful for this Thanksgiving?

 

Oh wait, I know what it was. David Eby had yet another press conference where he played the aggrieved partner in confederation whilst the baddies from Alberta and Ottawa secretly plotted to pour bitumen directly into BC’s coastal waters, mostly due to an absence of tankers.

 

Or…

 

Wait. There was that thing in Calgary where that prime minister Carney fellow and Premiere Smith mugged for the cameras and announced to great fanfare that Alberta and the Federal government had agreed to terms and crafted a mutual “memorandum of understanding” (MOU) that provided for, among other things:

 

• Overt support for the development of a plan and an application for a new oil pipeline (or pipelines) to the coast
• The concurrent development of CCUS facilities via the Pathways project
• The removal of the Clean Energy Regulations to be replaced by higher industrial carbon taxes administered in Alberta
• The removal of the emissions cap
• The creation of real indigenous ownership in the proposed pipeline
• A framework for consultations with affected first nations and other provinces (but no “veto” language)
• The end of the tanker ban for an approved pipeline
• Some nuclear stuff
• Something or other about electricity

 

Look, I will let others more technically versed weigh in on the specifics of the MOU, I’m sure the analysis machines are hitting overdrive right now and they are much more attuned to the minutiae.

 

What I will say is that this is hands down a win for Canada and Alberta and a new tenor in the future economic relationship between the Feds and our province. This isn’t Trudeau getting backed into a corner and having to buy TMX. This is the Carney government saying to Alberta – if you can get your poop in a group, do the plan, find a proponent, raise the capital and the project makes sense, we are going to throw our weight behind it. It is a massive change in tone. And long overdue.

 

The pipeline may never get built, but everyone (well except for BC – for now) is by and large on board.

 

Still… While it all sounds great, but let’s remember, it’s not a contract, it’s not a done deal, it’s only a MOU to plan for the pipeline. It’s a Memorandum of Understanding, an MOU (pronounced “moo”) and like a cow, it has it’s good side and it’s bad side and in the middle a large udder that many calfs can feed from. And there are a lot of mouths to feed here.

 

So, in the spirit of (yes, I know it’s American) Thanksgiving I say thank you to our political leaders for trying to get something down on paper, but before we start cashing cheques and feeding off the cow, can we all remember it’s only an MOU. Even if it’s a promising MOU with a shiny new cooperative tune.

 

Speaking of tunes and America and pieces of paper, here’s a wee trip down memory lane for those of us who remember such things and a revelation for those too young to have experienced these bits of education live. A rewrite of everyone’s favourite Schoolhouse Rock’s skit – sung to the tune of I’m Just A Bill, I present:

 

I’m Just A MOU

 

[Intro: Little Kevin]

Whew, you sure gotta climb a lot of steps to get to this Legislature Building here in Edmonton

Well, I wonder who that sad little scrap of paper is…

 

[Chorus: Mou]

I’m just a MOU, yes, I’m only a MOU

And at most I’m just an IOU.

Well, it’s a long, long journey to the capital city

It’s a long, long wait while I’m sitting in assessment

But I know I’ll be approved someday

At least I hope and pray that I do

But today, I am still just a MOU

 

[Verse 1: Bill & Little Kevin]

Gee, MOU, you certainly have a lot of patience and courage

Well, I got this far

When I started, I wasn’t even a MOU, I was just an idea

Some folks back home decided they wanted a pipeline built

So they called their local Premiere and she said, “You’re right, there ought to be a plan”

Then she sat down and wrote me out and introduced me to the Prime Minister, and I became a MOU

And I’ll remain a MOU until they decide to approve me.

 

[Chorus: MOU]

I’m just a MOU, yes, I’m only a MOU

And I got as far as Major Projects too

Well, now I’m stuck in assessment, and I’ll sit here and wait

While a few key politicians discuss and debate

Whether they should let me be a pipe!

How I hope and pray that they do

But today, I am still just a MOU

 

[Verse 2: Bill & Little Kevin]

Listen to those politicians arguing

Is all that discussion and debate about you?

Yeah, I’m one of the lucky ones

Most MOUs never even get this far

I hope they decide to decide on me favorably, otherwise I may die

Die?

Yeah, die in assessment

Ooh, but it looks like I’m gonna live

Now I go to the Major Projects Office and they vote on me

If they vote “yes”, what happens?

Then I go to the Cabinet and the whole thing starts all over again

Oh no

Oh yes!

 

[Chorus: MOU]

I’m just a MOU, yes, I’m only a MOU

And if they vote for me here’s what I’ll do

Well, then I’m off to Ottawa where I’ll wait in a line

With a lot of other MOUs for Mark Carney to sign

And if he signs me then I’ll be a pipe

How I hope and pray for that too

But today, I am still just a MOU

 

[Verse 3: Bill & Little Kevin]

You mean even if all the regulators say you should be a pipe

Mark Carney can still say no?

Yes, that’s called a “veto”

If Mark Carney vetoes me, I have to go back to Assessment

And they assess me again, and by that time it’s all only—

By that time, it’s very unlikely that you’ll become a pipe

It’s not easy to become a pipe, is it?

No!

 

[Chorus: MOU]

But how I hope and I pray that I do

But today, I am still just a MOU.

 

[Outro: MOU & Carney]

He signed you, MOU

Now you’re a pipe!

Oh yes!

 

Well, there you have it. The MOU, the pipe, the process, the dream. Will it happen? I don’t know, but a lot of money is going to be spent to find out and a lot of words will be spoken and written. Careers may get broken. Families torn asunder.

 

Well maybe not, but it’s a pretty contentious file and the opposition is organized so if this pipeline is ever to see the light of day and not be simply a “pipedream” and a catchy tune, the government of Alberta needs to find its private proponent and a giant pile of non-taxpayer cash commitment soon so that the actual debate can start.

 

The BC government, for as much of an anti-development clown show it is, is going to fight tooth and nail to stop the development and many affected First Nations are going to want to extract their pound of flesh or just stand in stubborn opposition.

 

The political realignment that this entails is significant. It’s not just a sop to the Alberta government. It’s a fundamental change to the historic Liberal Party animus to the oil patch. You can see that in the (thank god) resignation of Stephen Guilbeault from Cabinet or the interviews being given by the new Environment Minister (from BC no less!) in support of the MOU. The Conservatives have been end-run to a large extent and you can tell that from their feeble response so far. The shift of the Liberals to the Centre is significant.

 

Look, the “big” pipeline may never come to fruition, but the commitment to 1 million barrels per day of incremental export capacity can take many forms. Including further optimization of TMX, and maybe a less contentious export capacity addition. Who knows what smart people can come up with when obstacles are removed.

 

In the meantime, everyone can take the win, do a victory lap and a dance to my catchy tune and get back to getting ready for the Holidays – December is around the corner.

 

I know that’s what I’ll be doing.

 

It’s still just a MOU.