Hey everyone, it’s Davos week! Super exciting, right? Time for the World Economic Forum where the leaders of the free world and assorted rich people get to hobnob with each other, make important speeches and eat expensive food whilst guzzling magnums of Chateau Petrus and basking ion the glow of their own self-importance.

 

Not that I think it’s a waste of time or anything. Certainly, there must be some benefit to being there or we wouldn’t see the same people trek there year after year. I mean, I used to regularly attend industry conferences until I realized that the same people went year after year and presented on the same topics to the same people – my competition. Now I only do it every other year.

 

This year has had no shortage of drama, as the meeting comes on the heels of Donald Trump’s threatened annexation of Venezuela, oops I mean Minneapolis, heh, sorry… Greenland.

 

It seems that notwithstanding the existence of treaties allowing the US basically unfettered access to Greenland for both military, self-defence and industrial purposes, the American administration believes that having ownership of 830,000 square miles of unforgiving Arctic icesheet is more important than maintaining friendly relations with… NATO allies. Whatever – seems totally unnecessary and disruptive to me but what do I know. Perhaps Mr. Trump sees the scale of Greenland being similar to the size of the Louisiana Purchase the terms of which were orchestrated by his current hero and doctrinaire James Monroe.

 

Of course writing this on a Thursday to publish on a Friday, I am now hearing that there is a form of a framework of a deal being worked on to solve the security issues. Which will likely involve continued Greenlandic Sovereignty, patched relations with most of NATO (doubt Denmark will ever be the same) and a bunch of additional security exercises by NATO in the Arctic region. Good lord.

 

Also there is some Bored of Peace thingy? I’m not sure what that is all about, but Canada has been invited to participate for the low low initiation fee of $1 billion. For that we get to hobnob with a rogue’s gallery of dictators and wannabes, some of whom (Putin, Netanyahu) couldn’t attend the signing ceremony lest the ICC arrest them and a bunch of others are on the “no-fly you can’t get a visa here” list in the Untired States. Of course last night, Canada was DISINVITED from the Bored. So I guess that’s that. Apparently Mr. Trump is a bit miffed with Canada and Mark Carney as a result of what this blog is actually about, as detailed below.

 

Phew.

 

Lost in all the Trumpian turmoil and chaos was the participation of our very own Mark Carney in the speechifying where he was invited to give a keynote address to the assembled elites (the day before Trump was due to give his somewhat rambling talk on Thursday).

 

Mark Carney’s speech was apparently so on point, intellectually stimulating and rousing that he received a standing ovation for the WEF’ers – an honour apparently only twice before given – to Nelson Mandela and Volodymyr Zelensky. So he was in pretty good company. The speech has been variously labeled as the best speech ever at Davos and the most important and impressive speech regarding Canada and its place in the (new) world order. Conservatives here of course thought it was terrible. Alberta separatists said it was condescending and awful. Quebec separatists ironically said it made them proud to be Canadian. I’m so confused.

 

All quite the accolades and/or slings and arrows for our humble prime minister and I am told he wrote it himself – I mean why wouldn’t he, he did have plenty of down time the last week or so what with his trip basically circumnavigating the globe – Ottawa to Beijing to Qatar to Davos.

 

But I was curious, if he wrote it himself, and this was the final draft, surely there are earlier versions that might shed light on his creative thought processes. As a practiced blog writer, I generally free-form the blog in one take, but would an economist and central banker do the same or would he start with the basics and then refine it?

 

As it turns out, Mr. Carney does indeed work and rework those speeches he writes himself and is a bit of a perfectionist. He also DICTATES them (to a device) which is very old school. These recordings are then typed out word for word including any margin notes and “notes to draft”.

 

Fortunately, after sending my Crude Observations minions out to do some dumpster diving, I have been able to secure the original first of ten drafts of the momentous speech.

 

Let’s just say, he was much more diplomatic in the final than the original. And that’s probably a good thing. It was a journey to get there. The notes are… the notes.

 

But in the interests of full disclosure, I am going to reproduce it here in full for the benefit of you, my faithful readers, complete with all of the PM’s margin notes to draft.

 

<<NTD – Mark Carney speech to the moneyed elite, take 1. I assume I get introduced by someone so I will thank them. Please get Champagne to confirm that Trump will NOT be in the room or this could go sideways in a hurry.>>

 

Thank you very much for that introduction, I’m going to do the first part of these remarks in French so the CBC doesn’t hang me out to dry and the rest in English because let’s be real, all these things have an audience of one these days and he doesn’t speak French.

 

<<NTD – get the next few paragraphs translated by that guy in the speechwriting department>>

 

It seems that every day something happens that reminds us that we are the weak partner in a world where the big boys have decided there are no rules and that they can push us around, consequences be damned.

 

And this schoolyard supremacy version of international relations is treated as inevitable. Strong is strong, the weak get their faces rubbed in dogshit if they try to stand up for themselves. So the weaklings play along and kiss ass hoping to stay out of trouble long enough to enjoy a few minutes of peace at lunch and enjoy their PB&J sandwich. <<NTD – not sure of the schoolyard metaphor, feels like a dig at Poilievre>>

 

Except that never works. Whaddya gonna do? <<NTD, make this more formal>>

 

<<NTD – insert a summary of that analogy that Vaclav Havel guy wrote about communism. There was the story of the shoe store guy or some type of shop and the signs in the window. Basically the whole “system is perpetuated by all the weak people being too intimidated to challenge the system, so the system wins. What is needed is a break in the system/habits to expose the lies.” Taking down a sign or something.>>

 

Friends, it is time for us to tear down the signs. <<NTD – hope people get this, it’s subtle. Maybe bounce it off Chrystia if she’s still around (I mean she has to be at WEF right? She has an apt in Davos – I can always do a ripping off the bandaid reference>>

 

Since its founding, Canada has been able to get rich by playing along with the stuff the rest of the international community was up to – institutions, principles, predictability. We were able to make bank because of all this.

 

At the same time, parked beside the Monster of the Midway, we were also able to leverage off their good graces and geographical proximity to make further bank. <<NTD – there must be a better way to describe this – lazy capitalism? Hitching a ride? Sucker fish?>>

 

The trade off of course was asymmetrical power. The big guys created the rules, but they can ignore them when they want because they are big. But if we wanted to get all that we could out of the system, we had to milk our relationships, in particular with the US, for all they were worth – trade, security, energy, stable financial systems.

 

The rules and order were there, and they worked mostly in our favour.  Until they didn’t. Oopsie-poopsie. <<NTD – maybe oopsie poopsie won’t go over well with this crowd – need to revisit this>>

 

 

Let me be clear. The shit has hit the fan and it’s blowing our way. <<NTD – this is an awesome and stinky analogy!:))

 

In the last twenty years we have gone from the sleepy American neighbour with lots of maple syrup to a country that is more integrated with the global economy than ever before and are now beginning to realize that no other country, least of all our neighbour to the south, gives a damn whether we survive economically or not. And the big boys that we relied on to buy all our stuff are turning that reliance back on us to extract concessions from us all over again and shaking us down for our lunch money. <<NTD – again the schoolyard thing>>

 

Just because you someone hasn’t roughed you up yet doesn’t mean they won’t smack you if they need to or feel like it.

 

And all the organizations in the world that everyone pretended were all-powerful (WTO, UN, etc) are about as useful as a Canadian Passport Office <<NTD – is this an unnecessary dig? Will the unions come after me>>  when the country that basically created all of them no longer feels that they benefit from them. <<NTD – too subtle? Should I just say it? The US doesn’t give a rats ass anymore?>>

 

Guys – we are basically all on our own. No one is coming to save us. There are no heroes in this story. The schoolyard bully is on a rampage and the principal is in the staff room smoking a dart. <<NTD – this nails it, needs to be in the final draft for sure!>>

 

My dudes, you need to bear down and prepare yourselves – be self-sufficient in energy, ag, money, all those commodities and minerals everyone wants and secure your markets and supply chains. If you can’t secure all of the preceding as a country, you are pooched mothaf***a!

 

<<NTD – this feels like I’m drifting a bit – tighten it up>>

 

The next step is every man for himself – put up your walls, build a fortress and make all the deals you can. It’s diminishing returns. It’s spheres of influence. It’s bullying disguised as mercantilism. Isolationism disguised as nation building.

 

That said – there is only so far that a bully can punch someone. There is always a breaking point. The bullies arms eventually gets tired, just ask Pierre <<NTD – heh>>. The weaklings can band together to push back. That’s the only way the schoolyard gets solved. The nerds make a deal with the geeks. The poor kids side with the sports kids. So rather than everyone going it alone, you get some strength in numbers. And you jump that asshole from behind, kick him behind the knee, hit him over the head with a rock! <<NTD – is a call for violence the right tack here?>>

 

For middle powers like Canada the new reality must be adapted to. But is that more protectionism or is it more of something else, like cooperation.

 

I like to think Canada was among the first to figure out what was going on – the whole 51^st state thing was a pretty clear indication. The good old days of getting rich as a country because we had this giant economic security blanket are just that. Old. We’ve got to find a new approach that is grounded in reality.

 

<<NTD – didn’t Alex the Finn says something about this? Call him.>>

 

We need to find a way to marry our principles and good old Canadian pragmatism. <<NTD – is that really a thing? Or is pragmatism just a fancy way of saying fuddy-duddyness or OMG, conservatism?>>

 

Follow all the usual good global citizen “stuff” but be pragmatic and realize than not every country is a goodie-two-shoes like we are, doesn’t care to get along, doesn’t share our values and just wants to get a deal done.

 

So here in Canada, we will engage broadly but with open eyes. In pursuit of our interests, we can’t wait around for this or that supplier/customer to meet our lofty ideals – the world is filled with shitty people. Deal with it. Dance with devil etc. Make new and questionable friends. Give the bully his lunch money but get stronger behind the scenes like in the Charles Atlas cartoon thing <<NTD – does the reference make me seem old?>>.

 

<<NTD – this next part should be a list of all the cool stuff we like to brag about (some of which we may actually and eventually do!) like income tax cuts, trade barriers, investments in energy and stuff, spending on guns we aren’t confiscating, new trade deals and partnerships – China/Qatar/EU etc. Doesn’t matter who, make the list long enough that it will impress without boring people. DON’T MENTION THE US BY NAME.>>

 

<<NTD – also don’t mention any internal strife like the Alberta/Quebec separatists 😊>>

 

<<NTD – speaking of all the separatist stuff, is it just me or does the Alberta social media and other stuff seem way too slick for those rubes running it to have organized. There has got to be American money and influence in there somewhere. Someone should look into that. I mean that’s part of the theme here isn’t it?>>

 

<<OK, so that’s the internal part, probably need to address the security of the world part next. This is very rough, DO NOT USE!!!>>

 

You know what else we are doing? We’re using variable geometry <<is that an actual term?>>. What it means is making different deals with different parties for different problems.

 

Like Ukraine – we are part of the Coalition of the Willing and a big contributor to Ukraine’s defence and security <<NTD – duh, do you know how many Ukrainians live in Canada?? Electability matters!>>.

 

On this whole Arctic sovereignty bull shit, we stand firmly with Greenland and Denmark and fully support their unique right to determine Greenland’s future. <<NTD – the irony of course doesn’t escape me given the Alberta and Quebec situation – what are the odds this is the only sentence of the entire speech that comes back to bite me in the ass?>>

 

Article 5 – yadda yadda yadda, boots on the ground — skates boots on the ice.

 

Look folks, all the decision makers are here in the room. The whole tariffs on Europe regarding Greenland stuff from Trump is just dumb. Stop posturing and threatening and get to the table and get a deal done.

 

<<NTD, don’t forget to kiss some Euro ass by mentioning the TPP and Euro as a trading bloc, call it “plurilateral” another new Carney’ism for the win!>>

 

We’re forming buyer’s clubs <<NTD – will that reference get me in trouble?>> so the world can diversify away from concentrated supply. And on AI, we’re cooperating with other like-minded countries to make sure we don’t get eaten alive by either the US or the techbros. <<NTD – is there a more intellectual way to say this?>>

 

This type of issue by issue establishing of alliances is the only way to survive the new realities. Build a web of relationships with partners and stakeholders and hope it all stays together.

 

All of us middle powers must act together because we’re on the menu for the apex predator great powers. <<NTD – do I need to name them or is that overkill? I mean people should get it by this point unless they are asleep>>

 

Those are the guys who for now can go it alone. They have the market size, military and financial leverage to squash us if they decide to. Middle powers don’t, so we need to partner and not compete with other middle powers. Stop racing to be the first to kiss the ring – Ahem, Europe, I’m actually talking to you. Being the first out of the gate negotiate a shitty tariff deal doesn’t make you a winner, it makes you a patsy and a loser. <<NTD – too strong?>>

 

When there are two or three bullies jockeying for schoolyard domination, the play for the weaklings isn’t to kiss as much butt individually as possible, rather you need to band together to project any semblance of strength.  

 

<<NTD – need to start tying it back to the window thing without seeming awkward>>

 

So, how do we middle powers get back to the real world?

 

First, the old rules don’t work anymore if they ever really did. The reality is that the big boys are battleing for supremacy and will crush us given a chance. And, in the case of one in particular, using their economic might more effectively than their military ever could.  <<NTD – any chance Trump thinks I’m talking about China here?>>

 

Middle countries need to be consistent – no special favours. Call out the bullshit, like the 51^st state nonsense, or buying Greenland.

 

If the old world is gone, build a new one. Partner with the likeminded to recreate all that the giant wrecking ball in the US has torn down.

 

Be a nationalist, economic prick. My country first and last. F everyone else. It should be every government’s immediate priority.

 

<<NTD – There goes my Board of Peace invite I guess…>>

 

Make lots of deals. The more deals you have the less vulnerable you will be when one party goes off the rails.

 

Ask any Canadian about how that overreliance shit works.

 

<<NTD – I’m on a roll here, but Eurotrash won’t like all the swearing, maybe tone it down a bit>>

 

Let’s talk about Canada. <<NTD – I mean why not, I am Canadian right?>>

 

We have everything everyone wants. We are the partner everyone wats to deal with and thus we have a target on our back. So we need to spread the wealth around and get paid for it! <<NTD – list all the cool Canada stuff – energy, critical minerals, the most educated population in the world, giant and sophisticated pension funds, Brookfield and not Blackrock (proper and not predatory capital), government with some fiscal room left and a willingness to throw money at every problem real or perceived (may change that last one a bit)>>.

 

Canada is a middle power that works. We’re pretty stable even if many of our provincial and opposition leaders aren’t <<take that PP>>. Canadians remain committed to sustainability <<NTD – I allowed myself one environmental reference, will I get lit up for it? Cue the carbon tax eye rolls>>. We are reliable where no one else is, like a good pair of work boots.

 

And we have something else: we live next to Trumpland and live this shit every day whether its from targeted 51^st state nonsense to get us all wound up, incessant media attention or random tariffs and hatred for our auto industry. We aren’t afraid anymore of calling it out even if we know the rest of our middle power friends are likely to turn tail. <<NTD – I do notice how the oil industry is never targeted, gotta talk to Dani about how she’s managed that one>>

 

We are no longer giving up our lunch money.

 

We know the old order is not coming back. Too bad so sad. Living in the past is dumb, even if that past is only 12 months ago. As middle power weaklings, we need to pick up and dust ourselves off and start dealing pragmatically with the insane asylum that we are now locked in.

 

<<NTD – speaking of asylums, I need to watch One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest again, I love Jack Nicholson. Wonder if I can sneak a “You can’t Handle the Truth” reference in here somewhere>>

 

The big boys are tough and scary but they have their vulnerabilities. We need to band together to exploit them, call them out for their stupidities and extort their goodwill because we do actually have what they need, as long as we are acting together and not running around like chickens with their head’s cut off or rolling over like soft little kittens – Is Manny in the room? Can I call you that? Manny, I’m talking to you here, can you handle the truth? <<ha!>> – we don’t call you cheese-eating surrender monkeys for nothing – Stay. The. Course.

 

<<NTD – too strong? Should I do that part in French so it sounds classier?>>

 

<<NTD – this is the big finish. A bit of a gamble with this one.>>

 

That is the direction Canada is taking.

 

And we aren’t taking it lying down.

 

It’s not over. Did you say ‘over’? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!… It ain’t over now, ’cause when the goin’ gets tough, the tough get goin’. Who’s with me? Let’s go! Come on!…

 

What the f–k happened to the Europe and WEF and NATO I used to know? Where’s the spirit? Where’s the guts, huh? This could be the greatest year of our lives, but you’re gonna let it be the worst. ‘Ooh, we’re afraid to go with you, Mark, we might get in trouble.’

 

(shouting) Well, just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I’m not gonna take this. Nutlick, done listening to him! Bessent, same! Trump…

 

Look – you know I’m right. Psychotic, but absolutely right. We gotta take these bastards. Now, we could fight ’em with conventional trade weapons. That could take years and cost billions of dollars. No, in this case, I think we have to go all out. I think this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody’s part. 

 

And we’re just the guys to do it…LET’S DO IT!

 

<<NTD – the plan here is to run out of the room while delivering that second to last line and come back and rally the troops, but now that I think about it, I may need to remove this, there is no way the Euro-elite will ever get the reference – they may just think I’ve finally succumbed to my Trump Derangement Syndrome! Plus, they just aren’t that fun and inspirable>>

 

<<NTD –Does it even really matter? Most of these speeches bomb like a lead balloon. Whatever, at least the Petrus is free.>>